Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 3

Date: 22 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Domingo Burgueño Miguel (Maldonado)

Referee: Ostojich E. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Deportivo Maldonado		Peñarol de Montevideo

	1	X	2
	3.50	3.25	1.95	Watch
	3.60	3.25	1.95
	3.95	3.30	1.82
	3.73	3.45	2.09
	3.75	3.42	1.98	Watch
	3.65	3.40	2.03
	3.67	3.24	1.93	Watch
	3.60	3.25	2.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.68 ↑ (2.85)	3.32 ↑ (3.1)	1.97 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Maldonado
25.1%

Draw
27.9%

Peñarol de Montevideo
47%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

29.1%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Maldonado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportivo Maldonado's form might have worsened.

Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Peñarol de Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.

Deportivo Maldonado - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Segovia D. (G) 4. Ginzo J. M. 3. Menosse H. 19. Tealde F. 22. Ramos J. 7. Larrazabal G. 28. Cartagena S. 8. Gonzalez M. 17. Ramirez S. 14. Tabo C. 16. Cesar R.	29. Aguerre W. (G) 4. Romero F. 6. Ferreira L. 15. Olivera M. 7. Cabrera J. 5. Remedi E. 13. Darias E. 26. Espinosa Dovat T. N. 11. Jaime C. 19. Arezo M. 99. Hernandez A.
Substitutes
9. Bolzan C. 42. Fernandez J. 1. Freitas A. (G) 2. Fuica N. 18. Mayada C. 5. Nunez L. 32. Petryk H. 27. Sosa G. 20. Tormo S. 23. Vila A.	28. Alegre I. 77. Angulo L. 36. Barboza B. 9. Batista F. 1. Britos S. (G) 93. Laxalt D. 27. Lucas Hernandez 30. Muhlethaler S. 16. Olase T. 32. Umpierrez L.
Coaches
Di Noia G.	Aguirre D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Ferreira L. 🟨,
34', Arezo M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ferreira L. ↓, Barboza B. ↑,
46', Hernandez A. ↓, Umpierrez L. ↑,
54', Aguerre W. 🟨,
71', Remedi E. ↓, Laxalt D. ↑,
71', Larrazabal G. ↓, Mayada C. ↑,
78', Tealde F. ↓, Fernandez J. ↑,
79', Menosse H. 🟨,
85', Cartagena S. ↓, Nunez L. ↑,
85', Ramirez S. ↓, Sosa G. ↑,
85', Cesar R. ↓, Bolzan C. ↑,
88', Cabrera J. ↓, Muhlethaler S. ↑,
88', Arezo M. ↓, Batista F. ↑,
89', Darias E. 🟨,
90+2', Tabo C. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Maldonado won 0.

Maldonado has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Peñarol is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Peñarol may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Peñarol has had a series of home games.

In this match, Peñarol is considered a favorite.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Maldonado won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 12:24. (average 0.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Maldonado won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 0.9:1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Penarol	9	6	2	1	15:6	9	19
4	Maldonado	9	5	2	2	13:5	8	17

Last Results with these Odds

Deportivo Maldonado - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 31.66%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Maldonado SAD
Uruguayan Primera Division
16.08.26	Progreso - Deportivo Maldonado	0:2 ✺
10.08.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Racing Montevideo	2:2 ✺
01.08.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Juventud de Las Piedras	0:0 ✺
18.07.26	Progreso - Deportivo Maldonado	1:0 ✺
10.07.26	Deportivo Maldonado - Albion Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WTTLT
- Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
16.08.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Central Español	2:1 ✺
05.08.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Montevideo Wanderers	5:1 ✺
01.08.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Cerro Largo	3:0 ✺
18.07.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Boston River	3:0 ✺
12.07.26	Racing Montevideo - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
22.02.26	Peñarol de Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	2:1
11.10.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	2:0
06.07.24	Peñarol de Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	1:1
07.04.24	Deportivo Maldonado - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:2
13.10.23	Deportivo Maldonado - Peñarol de Montevideo	0:1
05.03.23	Peñarol de Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	2:1
22.08.22	Deportivo Maldonado - Peñarol de Montevideo	1:1

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