Match Info

ARGENTINA: PRIMERA NACIONAL - ROUND 7

Date: 20 March 2023, Monday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano (Moron)

Referee: Gariano A. (Arg)


	Deportivo Morón		Alvarado

	1	X	2
	1.91	3	4.75	Watch
	1.8	3	5
	1.85	3.1	4.8
	1.85	2.9	4.3
	1.86	3.1	5.34
	1.85	2.88	4.75
	1.94	3.14	4.5
	1.85	3.05	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↓ (2.37)	3.02 ↑ (2.74)	4.77 ↑ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Morón
49.8%

Draw
30.7%

Alvarado
19.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.5%

33.2%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

32.9%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Morón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Morón's performance.

Alvarado has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alvarado might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Morón than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Morón that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Alvarado could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.3%	21.4%	14.3%

Deportivo Morón - Alvarado Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Deportivo Morón will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Alvarado will win (votes: 2 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 21.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Deportivo Morón: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation and 17).

Deportivo Morón is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Alvarado is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Alvarado could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Deportivo Morón is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Deportivo Morón won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Deportivo Morón won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Morón
Argentinian Primera Nacional
12.03.23	Deportivo Flandria - Deportivo Morón	2:0 ✺
04.03.23	Deportivo Morón - San Martín de San Juan	1:0 ✺
26.02.23	Defensores Unidos - Deportivo Morón	2:0 ✺
19.02.23	Deportivo Morón - Guillermo Brown	0:0 ✺
13.02.23	Agropecuario Argentino - Deportivo Morón	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWLTL
- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Primera Nacional
11.03.23	Alvarado - Güemes	2:1 ✺
06.03.23	Patronato Parana - Alvarado	6:0 ✺
25.02.23	Alvarado - Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza	1:1 ✺
11.02.23	Deportivo Flandria - Alvarado	0:0 ✺
04.02.23	Alvarado - San Martín de San Juan	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLTTT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
01.08.22	Alvarado - Deportivo Morón	0:1
22.02.20	Deportivo Morón - Alvarado	1:0
29.08.19	Alvarado - Deportivo Morón	2:4

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