Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 25

Date: 3 August 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella (Paraná)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	TyC Sports Play


	Patronato Parana		Alvarado

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.1	4.75	Watch
	1.93	2.9	4.2
	1.92	2.92	4.35	Watch
	1.94	3.04	4.76
	1.99	2.74	4.96	Watch
	1.91	2.9	4.4
	1.89	3.06	4.69	Watch
	1.68	3.75	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.68)	3.05 ↓ (3.75)	4.61 ↓ (4.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Patronato Parana
49.2%

Draw
30.6%

Alvarado
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.6%

24.9%

19.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58%

23.9%

18.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Patronato Parana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Patronato Parana's form might have worsened.

Alvarado has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Patronato Parana than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Patronato Parana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alvarado than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Patronato Parana - Alvarado Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sosa A. (G) 8. Barinaga J. 6. Bellatti S. D. N. 9. Castro F. 2. Diaz G. 5. Enrique M. 7. Marcioni J. 11. Moreno E. 3. Moreyra F. 10. Pereyra V. L. 4. Rueda M.	1. Gomez Riga E. F. (G) 4. Ardiles F. 6. Blasi B. (C) 8. Bolivar A. 11. Gobetto J. 3. Irazoque A. 5. Mansilla M. 7. Martinez E. 10. Miori M. 2. Silva K. 9. Susvielles J.
Substitutes
20. Barolin J. 14. Escobar I. 12. Mazza J. (G) 13. Navas J. 16. Pacco L. 17. Pardo M. 15. Picco A. R. 18. Sanchez G. 19. Sombra A.	18. Amilivia T. 17. Ascacibar J. 20. Bolzicco T. 16. Borgnino M. 19. Castellano A. 13. Gorgerino C. 12. Henricot F. (G) 15. Ortale M. 14. Werro V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', Irazoque A. 🟨,
26', 1 - 0, Castro F. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Bolivar A. ↓, Bolzicco T. ↑,
62', Pereyra V. L. ↓, Picco A. R. ↑,
68', Miori M. 🟨,
69', Martinez E. ↓, Gorgerino C. ↑,
69', Irazoque A. ↓, Borgnino M. ↑,
73', Blasi B. 🟨,
78', Enrique M. ↓, Navas J. ↑,
84', Ardiles F. ↓, Amilivia T. ↑,
84', Miori M. ↓, Castellano A. ↑,
90', Marcioni J. ↓, Barolin J. ↑,
90+1', Moreno E. ↓, Escobar I. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Patronato may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Patronato is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Patronato won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 1.6:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Patronato won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:3. (average 3.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Patronato Parana
Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.07.25	Deportivo Madryn - Patronato Parana	2:0 ✺
20.07.25	Patronato Parana - Deportivo Maipú	1:0 ✺
11.07.25	Gimnasia y Tiro - Patronato Parana	2:1 ✺
06.07.25	Patronato Parana - Tristán Suárez	2:0 ✺
28.06.25	San Martín de Tucumán - Patronato Parana	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 LWLWW
- CA Alvarado
Argentinian Primera Nacional
27.07.25	Alvarado - Ferro Carril Oeste	3:0 ✺
19.07.25	Club Almagro - Alvarado	0:0 ✺
13.07.25	Alvarado - San Miguel	0:0 ✺
29.06.25	Alvarado - Racing de Córdoba	0:1 ✺
22.06.25	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Alvarado	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.6 WTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
30.03.25	Alvarado - Patronato Parana	3:1
28.07.24	Patronato Parana - Alvarado	1:3
10.03.24	Alvarado - Patronato Parana	2:0
08.07.23	Alvarado - Patronato Parana	2:0
06.03.23	Patronato Parana - Alvarado	6:0

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