Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 11

Date: 13 March 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Palogrande (Manizales)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fubo Latino 2


	Once Caldas		Deportivo Pasto

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.4	4.2	Watch
	1.85	3.35	4.25
	1.93	3.35	4.43
	1.91	3.37	4.11	Watch
	1.91	3.25	3.9
	1.92	3.24	4.11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↑ (1.83)	3.33 ↑ (3.23)	4.17 ↓ (4.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Once Caldas
49.4%

Draw
28.1%

Deportivo Pasto
22.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

28.5%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.8%

27.2%

20.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Once Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Deportivo Pasto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Pasto than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Once Caldas - Deportivo Pasto Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Once Caldas (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Users Predictions: Once Caldas will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Parra J. (G) 22. Cuesta Santos J. D. 2. Cardona J. 16. Castano J. 30. Tamayo K. 88. Mejia R. 14. Zapata Ramirez J. A. 10. Sanchez L. 42. Quinones J. 9. Gomez P. 17. Moreno D. (C)	12. Banguera G. (G) 3. Jimenez M. S. 2. Torijano F. (C) 5. Gil N. 27. Goyes H. 15. Mancilla H. 6. Caicedo J. 16. Gil M. 32. Pisano M. 11. Estupinan A. 29. Cordoba S.
Substitutes
36. Acuna R. 12. Aguirre J. (G) 7. Barrios M. 23. Cuesta Rodriguez K. A. 70. Quinones D. 20. Roa A. 5. Rojas I. 19. Rojas T. 28. Zuleta M.	17. Bernal J. 10. Chavez D. 23. Goez Y. 1. Herrerin I. (G) 19. Morelo W. 9. Preciado P. 8. Serje Orozco E. C. 22. Tolosa Y. 26. Valencia H.
Coaches
Herrera H.	Risueno J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Gomez P. ⚽, Mejia R. (A),
17', 2 - 0, Cardona J. ⚽, Sanchez L. (A),
25', Mancilla H. 🟨,
34', Mejia R. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Gil M. ↓, Serje Orozco E. C. ↑,
46', 3 - 0, Zapata Ramirez J. A. ⚽, Gomez P. (A),
46', Mancilla H. ↓, Goez Y. ↑,
59', Serje Orozco E. C. 🟨,
61', Jimenez M. S. 🟨,
63', 4 - 0, Moreno D. (Penalty Awarded),
68', Moreno D. ↓, Zuleta M. ↑,
68', Sanchez L. ↓, Barrios M. ↑,
68', Gomez P. ↓, Quinones D. ↑,
68', Mejia R. ↓, Rojas I. ↑,
71', Caicedo J. ↓, Chavez D. ↑,
71', Pisano M. ↓, Morelo W. ↑,
71', Cordoba S. ↓, Bernal J. ↑,
80', 4 - 1, Estupinan A. (Penalty Awarded),
81', Quinones J. ↓, Acuna R. ↑,
84', 4 - 2, Chavez D. ⚽, Estupinan A. (A),
90+5', Chavez D. 🟨,
90+6', Jimenez M. S. 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 4.

Now, both teams are in good form.

In this match, Once Caldas is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 9 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 24:17. (average 1.2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Once Caldas won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:5. (average 1.8:0.6).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Once Caldas	13	4	4	5	16:16	0	16
18	Dep. Pasto	12	2	3	7	9:18	-9	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Once Caldas
Colombian Primera A
06.03.26	Deportivo Cali - Once Caldas	0:2 ✺
27.02.26	Once Caldas - Boyacá Chicó	3:0 ✺
21.02.26	Once Caldas - Fortaleza CEIF	4:2 ✺
15.02.26	Deportes Tolima - Once Caldas	2:1 ✺
12.02.26	Once Caldas - Junior Barranquilla	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWWLW
- Deportivo Pasto
Colombian Primera A
09.03.26	Deportivo Pasto - América de Cali	2:0 ✺
01.03.26	Deportivo Pasto - Cúcuta Deportivo	3:2 ✺
20.02.26	Deportivo Pereira - Deportivo Pasto	2:2 ✺
14.02.26	Deportivo Pasto - Inter Bogotá	1:1 ✺
10.02.26	Llaneros SA - Deportivo Pasto	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.9 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
09.11.25	Once Caldas - Deportivo Pasto	1:0
Colombian Copa
01.10.25	Once Caldas - Deportivo Pasto	4:0
28.08.25	Deportivo Pasto - Once Caldas	1:2
Colombian Primera A
18.05.25	Deportivo Pasto - Once Caldas	2:1
14.10.24	Once Caldas - Deportivo Pasto	2:1
30.03.24	Deportivo Pasto - Once Caldas	0:0
29.08.23	Deportivo Pasto - Once Caldas	1:0

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