Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 18 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Departamental Libertad (Pasto)

Referee: Trujillo F. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fubo Latino 2


	Deportivo Pasto		Boyacá Chicó

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.75	7.5	Watch
	1.51	3.75	6
	1.52	3.7	6.9
	1.5	3.95	8.22
	1.46	4.06	7.6	Watch
	1.44	3.7	7.5
	1.49	3.78	7.26	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↓ (1.58)	3.81 ↑ (3.7)	7.28 ↑ (5.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Pasto
62.7%

Draw
24.5%

Boyacá Chicó
12.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

59%

25.2%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3%

24.3%

15.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Pasto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Boyacá Chicó has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Pasto than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boyacá Chicó than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Deportivo Pasto - Boyacá Chicó Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Deportivo Pasto will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Deportivo Pasto (2.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Pasto (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Herrerin I. (G) 33. Garavito M. 2. Torijano F. (C) 5. Gil N. 21. Velasco E. 23. Goez Y. 8. Serje Orozco E. C. 32. Pisano M. 10. Chavez D. 11. Estupinan A. 29. Cordoba S.	23. Denis D. (G) 29. Ruiz D. 2. Saldana A. 25. Palma J. 28. Diaz J. 5. Arroyo F. 11. Ramirez Raigosa D. A. 8. Salazar S. 3. Quiceno J. 18. Cabrera Y. 9. Molina J. (C)
Substitutes
12. Banguera G. (G) 6. Caicedo J. 16. Gil M. 27. Goyes H. 15. Mancilla H. 19. Morelo W. 7. Perlaza J. 22. Tolosa Y. 26. Valencia H.	6. Aedo A. 1. Caicedo Vasquez R. A. (G) 14. Campo Chara J. A. 19. Castillo J. 22. Diaz Montes J. d. J. 13. Martinez Y. 20. Valencia N.
Coaches
Risueno J.	Gomez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', Estupinan A. 🟨,
24', Ruiz D. 🟨,
34', Arroyo F. 🟥,
35', 1 - 0, Estupinan A. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Ruiz D. 🟥,
60', Cabrera Y. ↓, Castillo J. ↑,
63', Chavez D. ↓, Morelo W. ↑,
64', Pisano M. ↓, Gil M. ↑,
76', Cordoba S. ↓, Perlaza J. ↑,
77', 2 - 0, Perlaza J. ⚽, Morelo W. (A),
79', Velasco E. 🟨,
84', Molina J. 🟨,
85', Estupinan A. ↓, Tolosa Y. ↑,
86', Serje Orozco E. C. ↓, Mancilla H. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: ) and 17).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Pasto won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Deportivo Pasto may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Deportivo Pasto is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Pasto won 8 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 27:15. (average 1.4:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Pasto won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 19:7. (average 1.9:0.7).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
17	Chico	14	3	3	8	11:25	-14	12
20	Dep. Pasto	13	2	3	8	9:19	-10	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Pasto
Colombian Primera A
13.03.26	Once Caldas - Deportivo Pasto	4:2 ✺
09.03.26	Deportivo Pasto - América de Cali	2:0 ✺
01.03.26	Deportivo Pasto - Cúcuta Deportivo	3:2 ✺
20.02.26	Deportivo Pereira - Deportivo Pasto	2:2 ✺
14.02.26	Deportivo Pasto - Inter Bogotá	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LWWTT
- Boyacá Chicó
Colombian Primera A
14.03.26	Boyacá Chicó - Millonarios	2:1 ✺
27.02.26	Once Caldas - Boyacá Chicó	3:0 ✺
22.02.26	Boyacá Chicó - Rionegro Águilas	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Boyacá Chicó	2:1 ✺
12.02.26	Boyacá Chicó - Jaguares de Córdoba	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
05.09.25	Deportivo Pasto - Boyacá Chicó	2:0
26.07.25	Boyacá Chicó - Deportivo Pasto	2:2
22.03.25	Boyacá Chicó - Deportivo Pasto	0:0
12.02.25	Deportivo Pasto - Boyacá Chicó	3:0
22.09.24	Boyacá Chicó - Deportivo Pasto	1:0
09.03.24	Deportivo Pasto - Boyacá Chicó	2:1
20.08.23	Deportivo Pasto - Boyacá Chicó	1:1

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