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Millonarios vs Atlético Nacional Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Tuesday, March 17, 2026)

Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 17 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio El Campín (Bogotá)

Referee: Ospina J. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Sport TV
Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Russia	Viju+ Sport
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fubo Latino 2


	Millonarios		Atlético Nacional

	1	X	2
	2.63	3	2.75	Watch
	2.6	3	2.6
	2.58	3.05	2.82	Watch
	2.63	3.2	2.93
	2.57	3.08	2.86
	2.5	3	2.8
	2.53	3.02	2.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.48)	3.05 ↓ (3.25)	2.8 ↑ (2.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Millonarios
36.2%

Draw
30.6%

Atlético Nacional
33.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

28.7%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

28.3%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Millonarios has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Atlético Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Millonarios than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Millonarios will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Atlético Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Millonarios: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Novoa D. (G) 2. Sarabia C. 6. Mosquera S. 26. Llinas A. (C) 17. Arias J. 22. Valencia S. 30. Viveros S. 18. Urena R. 19. Garcia M. 23. Castro L. 27. Contreras R.	15. Castillo H. (G) 6. Roman A. 4. Haydar C. 16. Tesillo W. (C) 20. Casco M. 8. Uribe M. 21. Campuzano J. 13. Rodriguez N. 19. Rengifo J. 29. Sarmiento A. 9. Morelos A.
Substitutes
20. Banguero D. 33. Castro A. 11. Castro Espinosa B. D. 1. De Amores G. (G) 4. Elizalde E. 35. Mosquera S. 7. Quintero D. 3. Samuel M. 28. Vega S.	27. Asprilla D. 30. Bauza J. 18. Bello E. 10. Cardona E. 44. Catano K. (G) 28. Garcia S. 7. Moreno M. 26. Rivero E. 5. Uribe C.
Coaches
Bustos F.	Arias D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', Urena R. 🟨,
11', Tesillo W. 🟨,
11', Roman A. 🟨,
14', Morelos A. (Penalty Awarded),
15', 1 - 0, Contreras R. ⚽, Viveros S. (A),
26', Mosquera S. ↓, Elizalde E. ↑,
33', Tesillo W. 🟨,
37', Rodriguez N. ↓, Garcia S. ↑,
45+1', Casco M. 🟨,
45+1', Rengifo J. 🟨,
45+8', Garcia M. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Sarmiento A. ↓, Asprilla D. ↑,
49', Campuzano J. 🟥,
55', Morelos A. ↓, Bauza J. ↑,
61', 2 - 0, Garcia M. ⚽, Valencia S. (A),
64', Rengifo J. ↓, Rivero E. ↑,
65', Viveros S. ↓, Quintero D. ↑,
80', Valencia S. ↓, Banguero D. ↑,
80', Sarabia C. ↓, Castro Espinosa B. D. ↑,
80', Garcia M. ↓, Vega S. ↑,
83', 3 - 0, Castro L. ⚽, Quintero D. (A),
89', Haydar C. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Millonarios won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Atlético Nacional may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Millonarios won 9 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 18:13. (average 0.9:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Millonarios won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:6. (average 0.8:0.6).

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Last Results with these Odds

Millonarios - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.66%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Atlético Nacional - the odds 2.78 are the expected chance of winning is 33.6%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Millonarios FC
Colombian Primera A
14.03.26	Boyacá Chicó - Millonarios	2:1 ✺
09.03.26	Millonarios - Cúcuta Deportivo	2:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.03.26	Atlético Nacional - Millonarios	1:3 ✺
Colombian Primera A
26.02.26	Millonarios - Deportivo Pereira	5:1 ✺
21.02.26	Inter Bogotá - Millonarios	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LWWWL
- Atlético Nacional Medellin
Colombian Primera A
13.03.26	Atlético Nacional - Llaneros SA	2:0 ✺
10.03.26	Junior Barranquilla - Atlético Nacional	0:4 ✺
07.03.26	Rionegro Águilas - Atlético Nacional	1:2 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
04.03.26	Atlético Nacional - Millonarios	1:3 ✺
Colombian Primera A
01.03.26	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Nacional	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
04.03.26	Atlético Nacional - Millonarios	1:3
Colombian Primera A
27.09.25	Atlético Nacional - Millonarios	2:0
16.06.25	Atlético Nacional - Millonarios	0:1
05.06.25	Millonarios - Atlético Nacional	0:0
13.04.25	Millonarios - Atlético Nacional	0:0
02.12.24	Atlético Nacional - Millonarios	1:1
29.11.24	Millonarios - Atlético Nacional	2:1

Millonarios - Atlético Nacional: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide