Match Info

Copa Colombia - First stage - Round 4

Date: 11 June 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Departamental Libertad (Pasto)


	Deportivo Pasto		Unión Magdalena

	1	X	2
	1.17	7.5	13	Watch
	1.26	4.6	11
	1.15	5.7	14.5	Watch
	1.29	4.31	14.56	Watch
	1.22	5	15
	1.15	6.65	14.5	Watch
	1.15	5.7	14.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.2 ↓ (1.45)	5.64 ↑ (3.48)	13.87 ↑ (9.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Pasto
77%

Draw
16.4%

Unión Magdalena
6.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.7%

26.5%

9.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

25.5%

9.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Pasto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Pasto's performance.

Unión Magdalena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Pasto than the current prediction. (-10.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Pasto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Deportivo Pasto - Unión Magdalena Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Deportivo Pasto (1.64) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Deportivo Pasto will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Deportivo Pasto (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
17', 1 - 0, Alarcon A. ⚽,
37', 1 - 1, Iguaran C. ⚽,
40', 2 - 1, Preciado P. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
66', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Pasto won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Deportivo Pasto is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Pasto won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:10. (average 1.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Pasto won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:5. (average 2.4:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Pasto
Colombian Copa
05.06.25	Real Santander - Deportivo Pasto	1:1 ✺
02.06.25	Deportivo Pasto - Llaneros SA	3:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
25.05.25	Atlético Bucaramanga - Deportivo Pasto	2:1 ✺
18.05.25	Deportivo Pasto - Once Caldas	2:1 ✺
13.05.25	Deportivo Pereira - Deportivo Pasto	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TWLWL
- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Copa
05.06.25	Unión Magdalena - Atlético Cali	0:0 ✺
29.05.25	Real Santander - Unión Magdalena	0:2 ✺
Colombian Primera A
24.05.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Unión Magdalena	0:1 ✺
18.05.25	Unión Magdalena - América de Cali	0:2 ✺
09.05.25	Deportes Tolima - Unión Magdalena	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
25.02.25	Deportivo Pasto - Unión Magdalena	2:1
13.10.23	Deportivo Pasto - Unión Magdalena	3:1
29.04.23	Unión Magdalena - Deportivo Pasto	2:1
23.07.22	Deportivo Pasto - Unión Magdalena	1:2
03.02.22	Unión Magdalena - Deportivo Pasto	0:0
24.08.19	Deportivo Pasto - Unión Magdalena	2:0
05.06.19	Deportivo Pasto - Unión Magdalena	3:0

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