Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 20

Date: 24 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Cota (Cota)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional, ViX Latin America
Usa	Fanatiz


	Fortaleza CEIF		Unión Magdalena

	1	X	2
	1.4	4.2	8.5	Watch
	1.53	3.6	6
	1.43	3.95	6.8	Watch
	1.41	4.3	7.78
	1.44	4.16	7.78	Watch
	1.53	3.75	6
	1.43	4.3	7.7	Watch
	1.43	3.95	6.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.76)	4.03 ↑ (3.4)	7.17 ↑ (4.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fortaleza CEIF
64%

Draw
23.1%

Unión Magdalena
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

27.5%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.7%

26.7%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fortaleza CEIF has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fortaleza CEIF's performance.

Unión Magdalena has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Unión Magdalena might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fortaleza CEIF than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fortaleza CEIF that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Unión Magdalena than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Unión Magdalena could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	0%	15.4%

Fortaleza CEIF - Unión Magdalena Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1.5 - Fortaleza (2.56) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

1X2, 2nd Half - Fortaleza (1.91) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Users Predictions: Fortaleza CEIF will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fortaleza CEIF will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Fortaleza (votes: 12 - 92.3%). Unión Magdalena (votes: 1 - 7.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Castillo J. (G) 23. Ruiz D. 6. Diaz Y. 18. Balanta J. 15. Cuero S. 22. Camacho D. 14. Pico L. 13. Pajaro R. (C) 16. Florez K. 10. Sanchez L. 9. Cordoba S.	1. Restrepo E. (G) 4. Murillo D. 33. Vanegas Zuniga O. L. 5. Payares M. 30. Mosquera D. 26. Tello J. 24. Cantillo F. (C) 16. Sencion Rodriguez C. E. 7. Aleman J. 10. Sarmiento J. 28. Mercado J.
Substitutes
32. Barragan M. (G) 2. Lasso M. 27. Mosquera C. 26. Prieto S. 21. Ramiirez S. 8. Ricaurte A. 24. Salas J.	19. Diaz K. 20. Giraldo J. 34. Gomez Tovar G. E. (G) 3. Mera D. 18. Molina F. 25. Penaloza J. 14. Pinto J.
Coaches
Oliveros S.	Bedoya G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Cantillo F. 🟨,
45+3', Ruiz D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Diaz Y. ↓, Ramiirez S. ↑,
51', Sanchez L. ↓, Ricaurte A. ↑,
63', Sencion Rodriguez C. E. ↓, Giraldo J. ↑,
66', Florez K. ↓, Salas J. ↑,
67', Cuero S. ↓, Mosquera C. ↑,
76', Mercado J. 🟨,
76', Aleman J. ↓, Pinto J. ↑,
77', Mercado J. ↓, Diaz K. ↑,
88', 0 - 1, Cantillo F. ⚽,
90+2', Sarmiento J. ↓, Penaloza J. ↑,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 1.

In recent matches, Fortaleza has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Unión Magdalena has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Unión Magdalena may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Fortaleza is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Fortaleza won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:10. (average 1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Fortaleza won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fortaleza CEIF
Colombian Primera A
16.05.25	Junior Barranquilla - Fortaleza CEIF	2:1 ✺
10.05.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Deportivo La Equidad	4:0 ✺
04.05.25	Deportivo Pasto - Fortaleza CEIF	1:0 ✺
27.04.25	Fortaleza CEIF - Independiente Medellín	0:0 ✺
21.04.25	Boyacá Chicó - Fortaleza CEIF	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWLTW
- Unión Magdalena
Colombian Primera A
18.05.25	Unión Magdalena - América de Cali	0:2 ✺
09.05.25	Deportes Tolima - Unión Magdalena	3:1 ✺
04.05.25	Unión Magdalena - Once Caldas	Abandoned ✺
26.04.25	Envigado - Unión Magdalena	2:1 ✺
20.04.25	Unión Magdalena - Atlético Bucaramanga	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LL?LT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Copa
30.03.23	Unión Magdalena - Fortaleza CEIF	4:2
15.03.23	Fortaleza CEIF - Unión Magdalena	2:1
Colombian Primera B
28.11.21	Unión Magdalena - Fortaleza CEIF	1:0
13.11.21	Fortaleza CEIF - Unión Magdalena	0:0
26.07.21	Unión Magdalena - Fortaleza CEIF	3:1
03.03.21	Fortaleza CEIF - Unión Magdalena	1:1

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