Match Info

ARGENTINA: PRIMERA NACIONAL - PROMOTION - PLAY OFFS - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 20 November 2023, Monday


	Deportivo Riestra		Almirante Brown

	1	X	2
	2.15	2.8	4.2	Watch
	2.05	2.8	3.7
	2.15	2.85	3.75	Watch
	2.23	2.84	4.09
	2.23	2.84	4.1
	2.05	2.9	3.8
	2.13	2.98	3.9	Watch
	2.1	2.85	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.35)	2.86 ↓ (3.05)	3.94 ↑ (2.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Riestra
43.7%

Draw
32.6%

Almirante Brown
23.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

30.1%

30.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

29.3%

30.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Riestra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Almirante Brown has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Almirante Brown might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Riestra than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almirante Brown than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Almirante Brown could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Deportivo Riestra - Almirante Brown Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Deportivo Riestra will win (votes: 5 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Deportivo Riestra: 19% – 81%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Arce I. (G) 3. Tovo E. 4. Iribarren N. 5. Ramirez P. 6. Dematei N. 2. Goitia J. 7. Antonini F. 8. Alarcon G. 9. Romero L. 10. Acuna W. 11. Fernandez G.	1. Martinez R. (G) 4. Abreliano M. 2. Dattola A. 6. Barrionuevo A. 3. Zacaria J. 8. Vazquez J. 5. Enrique M. 7. Guzman L. 11. Santiago M. 9. Batallini M. 10. Bazan N.
Substitutes
12. Aguero F. (G) 13. Benitez G. 20. Gonzalez Herrero R. 18. Landriel L. 14. Mac Eachen E. 16. Magallanes D. 19. Ortiz M. 17. Villoldo T. 15. Zaninovic M.	20. Belloso M. 17. Escurra J. L. 12. Ferreyra N. (G) 21. Garcia D. 16. Garcia J. 14. Mino F. 13. Moreno C. 15. Ochoa A. 18. Rivero G.
Coaches
Modolo M.	Franco D.

Preview

1st leg.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Deportivo Riestra won 1.

Deportivo Riestra is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Almirante Brown is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Deportivo Riestra could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Deportivo Riestra will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Deportivo Riestra won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Deportivo Riestra won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-5.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Riestra
Argentinian Primera Nacional
13.11.23	Quilmes - Deportivo Riestra	0:1 ✺
07.11.23	Deportivo Riestra - Quilmes	1:1 ✺
27.10.23	San Martín de Tucumán - Deportivo Riestra	0:1 ✺
15.10.23	Gimnasia Jujuy - Deportivo Riestra	0:1 ✺
08.10.23	Deportivo Riestra - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.7 WTWWT
- Almirante Brown
Argentinian Primera Nacional
11.11.23	Almirante Brown - Ferro Carril Oeste	0:0 ✺
05.11.23	Ferro Carril Oeste - Almirante Brown	1:1 ✺
29.10.23	Almirante Brown - Independiente Rivadavia	0:2 ET ✺
16.10.23	Almirante Brown - Temperley	2:0 ✺
08.10.23	San Martín de Tucumán - Almirante Brown	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
30.04.22	Almirante Brown - Deportivo Riestra	1:1
18.09.21	Almirante Brown - Deportivo Riestra	1:0
11.05.21	Deportivo Riestra - Almirante Brown	1:2
Argentinian Primera B
27.04.19	Almirante Brown - Deportivo Riestra	0:1
17.11.18	Deportivo Riestra - Almirante Brown	1:1
29.04.17	Deportivo Riestra - Almirante Brown	0:1
15.10.16	Almirante Brown - Deportivo Riestra	0:5

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