Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 11

Date: 28 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry (Buenos Aires)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Ferro Carril Oeste		Almirante Brown

	1	X	2
	1.81	2.85	5.25	Watch
	1.88	2.9	4.5
	1.85	2.82	5.15
	1.9	2.91	5.65
	1.9	2.77	5.64	Watch
	1.91	2.7	5
	1.9	2.92	5.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.82)	2.84 ↓ (2.89)	5.17 ↑ (4.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferro Carril Oeste
49.4%

Draw
32.7%

Almirante Brown
17.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.9%

31.4%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.7%

30.3%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferro Carril Oeste has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Almirante Brown has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferro Carril Oeste than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almirante Brown than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	42.9%	14.3%

Ferro Carril Oeste - Almirante Brown Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Ferro Carril will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Almirante Brown will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Monetti F. (C) 4. Nazareno K. 2. Zubowicz M. 6. Canto G. 3. Ozuna E. 5. Obradovich F. 8. Kabalin M. 10. Campos M. 7. Parisi L. 9. Acosta M. 11. Garcia F.	1. Galvan B. (G) 4. Cardozo E. 2. Levi M. 6. Cabral G. (C) 3. Fernandez R. 7. Abreliano M. 5. Jara L. 8. Velazquez J. 11. Almada T. 9. Martinez E. 10. Zarate T.
Substitutes
14. Corda S. 19. Dening E. 16. Gomez N. 17. Gonzalez A. 18. Hoyos E. 20. Menendez J. 15. Olguin G. 13. Pena Biafore L. 12. Ruiz L. (G)	13. Alegre Rojas G. 15. Altamirano G. 19. Bazan N. 12. Bottini A. (G) 16. Gauna S. 20. Iglesias L. 17. Quignon F. 18. Vera S. 14. Villoldo T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Cabral G. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Almada T. ↓, Villoldo T. ↑,
47', Nazareno K. 🟨,
56', Parisi L. ↓, Corda S. ↑,
56', Nazareno K. ↓, Hoyos E. ↑,
62', Cardozo E. 🟨,
65', Zarate T. ↓, Vera S. ↑,
68', Hoyos E. 🟨,
70', Garcia F. ↓, Dening E. ↑,
70', Kabalin M. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
75', Martinez E. ↓, Alegre Rojas G. ↑,
75', Velazquez J. ↓, Gauna S. ↑,
79', Campos M. ↓, Menendez J. ↑,
87', Abreliano M. ↓, Altamirano G. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ferro Carril won 1.

Ferro Carril has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Almirante Brown is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Ferro Carril is considered a favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Ferro Carril won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.4:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Ferro Carril won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferro Carril Oeste
Argentinian Primera Nacional
19.04.26	Mitre - Ferro Carril Oeste	0:1 ✺
12.04.26	Ferro Carril Oeste - Estudiantes de Caseros	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	All Boys - Ferro Carril Oeste	0:0 ✺
28.03.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Ferro Carril Oeste	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Ferro Carril Oeste - Los Andes	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WLTWL
- Almirante Brown
Argentinian Primera Nacional
19.04.26	Almirante Brown - Central Norte	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Deportivo Madryn - Almirante Brown	2:1 ✺
05.04.26	Almirante Brown - Defensores de Belgrano	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	Almirante Brown - Tristán Suárez	0:1 ✺
21.03.26	Ciudad de Bolívar - Almirante Brown	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
11.11.23	Almirante Brown - Ferro Carril Oeste	0:0
05.11.23	Ferro Carril Oeste - Almirante Brown	1:1
15.08.22	Ferro Carril Oeste - Almirante Brown	1:0
05.04.14	Almirante Brown - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:1
05.10.13	Ferro Carril Oeste - Almirante Brown	0:1
08.03.13	Almirante Brown - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:0
10.09.12	Ferro Carril Oeste - Almirante Brown	0:0

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