Match Info

ARGENTINA: PRIMERA NACIONAL - ROUND 33

Date: 8 October 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Guillermo Laza (Buenos Aires)

Referee: Monson Brizuela G. (Arg)


	Deportivo Riestra		Ferro Carril Oeste

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.4	4.75	Watch
	1.85	3.25	4
	1.83	3.3	4.33	Watch
	1.83	3.45	4.78
	1.83	3.25	4.2
	1.81	3.42	4.6
	1.86	3.3	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.13)	3.34 ↑ (3.23)	4.41 ↑ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Riestra
50.9%

Draw
28%

Ferro Carril Oeste
21.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.3%

28.5%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

28.4%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Riestra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Deportivo Riestra's performance.

Ferro Carril Oeste has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ferro Carril Oeste might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Riestra than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Riestra that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferro Carril Oeste than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ferro Carril Oeste could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	0%	10%

Deportivo Riestra - Ferro Carril Oeste Predictions

Users Predictions: Deportivo Riestra will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Arce I. (G) 3. Tovo E. 4. Iribarren N. 6. Ramirez P. 5. Dematei N. 2. Goitia J. 7. Antonini F. 8. Celiz M. 10. Bravo G. 9. Romero L. 11. Gonzalez Herrero R.	1. Mino M. (G) 4. Grana H. 2. Arena N. 6. Boolsen P. 3. Di Lena F. 8. Erbes C. 5. Vazquez K. A. 10. Mosca C. 11. Campos M. 7. Diaz A. 9. Herrera J.
Substitutes
20. Acuna W. 12. Aguero F. (G) 13. Benitez G. 15. Borja J. 18. Landriel L. 16. Magallanes D. 17. Portillo S. 19. Torres F. 14. Villoldo T.	13. Alvarado P. 19. Colombini I. 14. Faggioli L. 12. Jachfe L. (G) 16. Machado W. 17. Moreyra G. 18. Palacio P. 20. Retamar K. 15. Romero N.
Coaches
Marchesi W.	Cordon J. L.

Preview

You will have a great opportunity to watch a game between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Recent matches Deportivo Riestra is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ferro Carril is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ferro Carril could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Deportivo Riestra will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Deportivo Riestra won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Deportivo Riestra won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Riestra
Argentinian Primera Nacional
02.10.23	Deportivo Riestra - Aldosivi	3:0 ✺
24.09.23	Racing de Córdoba - Deportivo Riestra	1:0 ✺
15.09.23	Deportivo Riestra - Atlanta Buenos Aires	1:0 ✺
10.09.23	Tristán Suárez - Deportivo Riestra	0:0 ✺
05.09.23	Deportivo Riestra - Chacarita Juniors	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WLWTL
- Ferro Carril Oeste
Argentinian Primera Nacional
30.09.23	Ferro Carril Oeste - Racing de Córdoba	3:1 ✺
24.09.23	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:1 ✺
18.09.23	Ferro Carril Oeste - Tristán Suárez	2:1 ✺
10.09.23	Chacarita Juniors - Ferro Carril Oeste	3:1 ✺
04.09.23	Ferro Carril Oeste - Mitre	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
29.05.23	Ferro Carril Oeste - Deportivo Riestra	2:2
31.08.22	Deportivo Riestra - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:0
06.04.18	Deportivo Riestra - Ferro Carril Oeste	1:0

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