Match Info

Date: 24 September 2021, Friday 🏁 Finished


	Derry City		Longford Town

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.75	10
	1.38	4.5	7.5
	1.38	4.4	7.5
	1.32	5	8
	1.37	5.17	9.42
	1.33	4.33	9
	1.36	4.95	8.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↓ (1.49)	4.73 ↑ (3.93)	8.62 ↑ (6.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derry City
69.3%

Draw
19.8%

Longford Town
10.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

62.2%

23.5%

14.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

13.9%

24.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derry City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Derry City's performance.

Longford Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derry City than the current prediction. (-32.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Derry City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Longford Town than the current prediction. (+13.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Longford Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Derry City - Longford Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Recent matches Derry is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Longford is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Longford could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Derry is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Derry won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 19-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Derry won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derry City
Irish Premier Division
20.09.21	Bohemians Dublin - Derry City	3:3 ✺
10.09.21	Derry City - Finn Harps	2:2 ✺
Irish FAI Cup
27.08.21	Finn Harps - Derry City	1:0 ✺
Irish Premier Division
21.08.21	Sligo Rovers - Derry City	1:2 ✺
15.08.21	Derry City - Dundalk	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.9 TTLWW
- Longford Town
Irish Premier Division
11.09.21	Longford Town - Dundalk	1:0 ✺
03.09.21	St Patricks Athletic - Longford Town	3:2 ✺
Irish FAI Cup
27.08.21	University College Dublin - Longford Town	2:1 ✺
Irish Premier Division
20.08.21	Waterford - Longford Town	4:1 ✺
14.08.21	Longford Town - Finn Harps	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Irish Premier Division
31.07.21	Longford Town - Derry City	0:2
07.05.21	Derry City - Longford Town	1:1
20.03.21	Longford Town - Derry City	2:0
Irish League Cup
02.04.19	Derry City - Longford Town	3:0
Irish Premier Division
08.10.16	Longford Town - Derry City	2:3
15.07.16	Derry City - Longford Town	4:0
16.04.16	Longford Town - Derry City	1:1

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derry City
Irish Premier Division
30.10.26	Sligo Rovers - Derry City	✺

Derry City - Longford Town