Match Info

Serie D - Group D - Round 17

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday


	Desenzano Calvina		Sangiuliano City Nova

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.3	2.82
	2.23	3.41	2.85	Watch
	2.26	3.4	2.84
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.22)	3.37 ↓ (3.41)	2.84 ↓ (2.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Desenzano Calvina
40.9%

Draw
27%

Sangiuliano City Nova
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

26.9%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

25%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Desenzano Calvina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Sangiuliano City Nova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Desenzano Calvina than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sangiuliano City Nova than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Desenzano Calvina - Sangiuliano City Nova Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Desenzano (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
44', 0 - 1, Busatto T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group D (Play Offs: ) and 9).

Desenzano has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Sangiuliano City has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Sangiuliano City may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Desenzano will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Desenzano won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:6. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Desenzano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Desenzano Calvina - the odds 2.22 are the expected chance of winning is 41.24%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Sangiuliano City Nova - the odds 2.87 are the expected chance of winning is 31.9%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desenzano Calvina
Italian Serie D - Group D
14.12.25	Pistoiese - Desenzano Calvina	0:2 ✺
07.12.25	Desenzano Calvina - Imolese	4:3 ✺
30.11.25	Sasso Marconi - Desenzano Calvina	1:3 ✺
23.11.25	Desenzano Calvina - Rovato Vertovese	3:0 ✺
16.11.25	Desenzano Calvina - Tropical Coriano	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWWWW
- Sangiuliano City Nova
Italian Serie D - Group D
13.12.25	Sangiuliano City Nova - Rovato Vertovese	1:0 ✺
07.12.25	Cittadella Vis Modena - Sangiuliano City Nova	3:0 ✺
30.11.25	Sangiuliano City Nova - Crema	2:2 ✺
23.11.25	Tropical Coriano - Sangiuliano City Nova	0:2 ✺
16.11.25	Sangiuliano City Nova - Trevigliese	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group B
29.01.25	Desenzano Calvina - Sangiuliano City Nova	1:0
02.10.24	Sangiuliano City Nova - Desenzano Calvina	1:2
20.02.22	Sangiuliano City Nova - Desenzano Calvina	3:1
16.10.21	Desenzano Calvina - Sangiuliano City Nova	1:2

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