Match Info

Serie D - Group D - Round 12

Date: 16 November 2025, Sunday


	Desenzano Calvina		Tropical Coriano

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.5	5.15
	1.50	4.02	5.60	Watch
	1.55	3.64	5.49
	1.57	3.7	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.45)	3.72 ↓ (4.05)	5.36 ↓ (5.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Desenzano Calvina
58.6%

Draw
24.5%

Tropical Coriano
16.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62%

22.2%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.9%

21.2%

15.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Desenzano Calvina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Tropical Coriano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Desenzano Calvina than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Desenzano Calvina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tropical Coriano than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Desenzano Calvina - Tropical Coriano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
45+1', 1 - 0, Brighenti A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
87', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group D (Play Offs: ) and 15 in the zone Serie D ~ Group D (Play Out: )).

Desenzano is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tropical Coriano is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Desenzano is considered a favorite.

We predict that Desenzano will win today's game, with odds of 1.54.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desenzano Calvina
Italian Serie D - Group D
09.11.25	Cittadella Vis Modena - Desenzano Calvina	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	Desenzano Calvina - Pro Sesto	2:2 ✺
26.10.25	Crema - Desenzano Calvina	0:2 ✺
19.10.25	Desenzano Calvina - SantAngelo	5:1 ✺
12.10.25	Trevigliese - Desenzano Calvina	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TTWWW
- ASD Tropical Coriano
Italian Serie D - Group D
09.11.25	Tropical Coriano - Rovato Vertovese	1:2 ✺
02.11.25	Sasso Marconi - Tropical Coriano	2:0 ✺
26.10.25	Tropical Coriano - Cittadella Vis Modena	0:1 ✺
19.10.25	Tropical Coriano - Pro Sesto	0:0 ✺
12.10.25	Crema - Tropical Coriano	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LLLTW

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