Match Info

Serie D - Group D - Round 14

Date: 30 November 2025, Sunday


	Sasso Marconi		Desenzano Calvina

	1	X	2
	3.15	3.1	2.1
	3.32	3.11	2.13	Watch
	3.21	3.08	2.15
	3.25	3.1	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.23 ↓ (3.74)	3.1 ↓ (3.63)	2.13 ↑ (1.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sasso Marconi
28.1%

Draw
29.3%

Desenzano Calvina
42.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.3%

25.1%

50.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.7%

24.5%

51.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sasso Marconi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Desenzano Calvina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Desenzano Calvina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sasso Marconi than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Desenzano Calvina than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Desenzano Calvina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sasso Marconi - Desenzano Calvina Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
28', 0 - 1, Bakayoko A. ⚽,
38', 0 - 2, Bakayoko A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
90+7', 1 - 2, ⚽,
90+7', 1 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 in the zone Serie D ~ Group D (Play Out: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group D (Play Offs: )).

Sasso Marconi has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Desenzano is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Desenzano is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Sasso Marconi won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Sasso Marconi won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Sasso Marconi 1924
Italian Serie D - Group D
23.11.25	Lentigione - Sasso Marconi	1:0 ✺
16.11.25	Sasso Marconi - Cittadella Vis Modena	0:0 ✺
09.11.25	Tuttocuoio - Sasso Marconi	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	Sasso Marconi - Tropical Coriano	2:0 ✺
26.10.25	Correggese - Sasso Marconi	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LTWWT
- Desenzano Calvina
Italian Serie D - Group D
23.11.25	Desenzano Calvina - Rovato Vertovese	3:0 ✺
16.11.25	Desenzano Calvina - Tropical Coriano	2:0 ✺
09.11.25	Cittadella Vis Modena - Desenzano Calvina	0:0 ✺
02.11.25	Desenzano Calvina - Pro Sesto	2:2 ✺
26.10.25	Crema - Desenzano Calvina	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group D
15.12.19	Sasso Marconi - Desenzano Calvina	1:2
31.03.19	Sasso Marconi - Desenzano Calvina	0:1

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