Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 22

Date: 14 February 2026, Saturday


	Deusto		Portugalete

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.35	1.65
	4.73	3.54	1.65
	4.84	3.58	1.66
	5.09	3.52	1.61
	4.5	3.6	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.78 ↓ (4.79)	3.52 ↑ (3.34)	1.65 ↓ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deusto
19%

Draw
25.8%

Portugalete
55.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19%

27.2%

53.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.9%

27.1%

54.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Deusto have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Portugalete has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deusto than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portugalete than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Deusto - Portugalete Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
42', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
90+7', 1 - 1, ⚽,
90+7', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deusto won 0.

Deusto has been struggling in recent matches (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Portugalete is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In this match, Portugalete is seen as the favorite.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Deusto won 1 match, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 11:20. (average 0.7:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Deusto won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:12. (average 0.9:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Deusto
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
08.02.26	San Ignacio - Deusto	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	Deusto - Derio	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	Touring KE - Deusto	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Deusto - Alavés C	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	Deusto - Aurrerá de Vitoria	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLTL
- Club Portugalete
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
07.02.26	Zarautz KE - Portugalete	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Portugalete - San Ignacio	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Derio - Portugalete	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Portugalete - Touring KE	2:0 ✺
11.01.26	Portugalete - Alavés C	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
05.10.25	Portugalete - Deusto	1:0
24.05.25	Portugalete - Deusto	1:0
17.05.25	Deusto - Portugalete	1:1
06.04.25	Portugalete - Deusto	1:1
23.11.24	Deusto - Portugalete	0:2
05.05.24	Portugalete - Deusto	0:1
14.01.24	Deusto - Portugalete	2:2

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