Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - 1/8-finals

Date: 8 July 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stade Municipal de la Ville de Differdange (Differdange)

Referee: Bosca I. (Mda)


	Differdange 03		Ilves

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.5	2.35	Watch
	2.60	3.40	2.35
	2.52	3.45	2.48	Watch
	2.52	3.67	2.48
	2.67	3.68	2.37	Watch
	2.45	3.6	2.3
	2.48	3.72	2.63	Watch
	2.55	3.65	2.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↓ (3.75)	3.58 ↓ (4)	2.43 ↑ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Differdange 03
36.4%

Draw
25.7%

Ilves
37.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.1%

22.6%

53.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

20.2%

47.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Differdange 03 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Differdange 03's performance.

Ilves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ilves might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Differdange 03 than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Differdange 03 that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ilves than the current prediction. (+9.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ilves could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.9%	10.9%	15.2%

Differdange 03 - Ilves Predictions

Users Predictions: 46 users predict this event. Differdange 03 will win (votes: 34 - 73.9%). Ilves will win (votes: 7 - 15.2%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 10.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Differdange 03: 61.2% – 86.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Differdange 03 (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Differdange 03 (2.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (3.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Differdange 03 (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Felipe (G) 4. D'Anzico K. 66. Gomes Ricciulli J. P. 14. Bedouret J. 25. Franzoni G. (C) 77. Leandro Borges 21. Rauch L. 24. Rivas E. 31. Thill S. 95. Gustavo Vintecinco 20. Pinto R.	12. Krkalic F. (G) 13. Wallius K. 16. Miettunen T. 24. Kumpu V. 3. Rale M. 6. Raap Y. 14. Popovitch A. 19. Bamba G. 7. Veteli J. 30. Kanga J. (C) 9. Hytonen T.
Substitutes
8. Bruninho 16. Grilo M. 42. Mabuza M. 88. Melhor S. 26. Mendes F. 7. Mfoumou B. 99. Wolf H. (G)	17. Baranov S. 28. Kilo J. 31. Leislahti R. (G) 22. Multala O. 4. Pettersson O. 10. Riski Ro. 20. Tiitinen O. 5. Vaisanen S. 1. Virtanen O. (G)
Coaches
Resende P.	Lehtonen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Bedouret J. 🟨,
20', Gomes Ricciulli J. P. ↓, Grilo M. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Raap Y. ↓, Tiitinen O. ↑,
62', Veteli J. ↓, Kilo J. ↑,
63', Pinto R. ↓, Mfoumou B. ↑,
63', Gustavo Vintecinco ↓, Nabais I. ↑,
65', Kilo J. 🟨,
70', Miettunen T. ↓, Vaisanen S. ↑,
81', Thill S. ↓, Bruninho ↑,
82', Rivas E. ↓, Melhor S. ↑,
82', Popovitch A. ↓, Riski Ro. ↑,
82', Wallius K. ↓, Baranov S. ↑,
85', Rale M. 🟨,
90', Kanga J. 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Differdange 03 is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ilves has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ilves may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Differdange 03 has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Ilves - the odds 1.7 are the expected chance of winning is 53.24%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Differdange 03
Club Friendly
01.07.26	Differdange 03 - F91 Dudelange	2:0 ✺
19.06.26	Differdange 03 - UNA Strassen	1:1 ✺
Luxembourg Cup
29.05.26	Differdange 03 - Victoria Rosport	4:1 ✺
Luxembourg National Division
23.05.26	Atert Bissen - Differdange 03	1:0 ✺
17.05.26	Differdange 03 - Käerjéng 97	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 WTWLW
- FC Ilves
Finnish Veikkausliiga
04.07.26	FF Jaro - Ilves	2:1 ✺
Finnish Cup
01.07.26	HJK - Ilves	2:1 ✺
Finnish Veikkausliiga
27.06.26	Ilves - SJK	2:2 ✺
23.06.26	KuPS Kuopio - Ilves	4:3 ✺
17.06.26	Ilves - FF Jaro	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLTLW

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