Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 14 - Round 34

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday


	Diocesano		Villafranca

	1	X	2
	2.68	3.55	2.18
	2.68	3.97	2.06
	2.33	4.35	2.33
	2.63	3.6	2.15
	3.03	3.54	2.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.28)	3.8 ↑ (3.18)	2.18 ↓ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Diocesano
34.2%

Draw
24%

Villafranca
41.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

28.7%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

28.7%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Diocesano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Diocesano's form might have worsened.

Villafranca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Villafranca's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Diocesano than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Diocesano, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Villafranca than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Villafranca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Diocesano - Villafranca Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
20', 0 - 1, ⚽,
24', 0 - 2, ⚽,
37', 1 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 2)
48', 2 - 2, ⚽,
72', 2 - 3, ⚽,
77', 2 - 4, ⚽,
79', 3 - 4, ⚽,
90+2', 4 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Diocesano won 0.

Diocesano has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Villafranca is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Diocesano won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 9:12. (average 1.3:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Diocesano won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 1.7:1.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Villafranca	4	1	0	3	4:7	-3	3

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Diocesano
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
03.05.26	Don Benito - Diocesano	8:1 ✺
26.04.26	Diocesano - Santa Amalia	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Azuaga - Diocesano	3:1 ✺
12.04.26	Diocesano - Gévora	2:1 ✺
05.04.26	Calamonte - Diocesano	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTLWT
- SP Villafranca
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
03.05.26	Villafranca - Jerez	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Villafranca - Don Benito	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Santa Amalia - Villafranca	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Villafranca - Azuaga	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Gévora - Villafranca	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 14
11.01.26	Villafranca - Diocesano	1:0
23.02.25	Diocesano - Villafranca	0:1
13.10.24	Villafranca - Diocesano	2:2
10.03.24	Villafranca - Diocesano	3:1
22.10.23	Diocesano - Villafranca	2:3
24.04.22	Villafranca - Diocesano	1:1
18.12.21	Diocesano - Villafranca	3:1

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