The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Dover Athletic 28.7%
Draw 25%
Chelmsford City 46.3%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
28%
25.3%
46.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
27%
26.2%
48.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Dover Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)
Chelmsford City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dover Athletic than the current prediction. (-1.7%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelmsford City than the current prediction. (+2.1%)
Dover Athletic - Chelmsford City Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
40', Charles-Cook R. 🟥,
40', (Penalty Awarded),
42', 0 - 1, Barbrook H. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
Preview
A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 11th and 15th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dover won 2.
Dover is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
Chelmsford has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Chelmsford holding a narrow advantage.
In the last 12 head-to-head meetings, Dover has recorded 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:9 (averaging 1.3:0.8 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Dover against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with 3:4 goals (averaging 0.5:0.7 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
11
Dover
13
5
4
4
19:19
0
19
13
Chelmsford
12
3
9
0
18:11
7
18
Outrights of English National League South for now