Match Info

National League South - Round 46

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Dover Athletic		Chesham United

	1	X	2
	3.95	3.9	1.72
	4.13	4	1.74
	4.18	4.19	1.69	Watch
	4.2	3.8	1.7
	4.16	3.96	1.65
	3.25	3.35	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.98 ↑ (3.25)	3.87 ↑ (3.35)	1.73 ↓ (1.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dover Athletic
23.1%

Draw
23.8%

Chesham United
53.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

27%

26.2%

46.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.6%

24.9%

49.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dover Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Chesham United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chesham United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dover Athletic than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chesham United than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Dover Athletic - Chesham United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', 1 - 0, Nikaj G. ⚽,
45+2', 1 - 1, Babos A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', 1 - 2, Yearn K. ⚽,
80', 2 - 2, Nikaj G. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 20 and 11).

Recent form of Dover has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Chesham's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Chesham is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Dover won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Dover	13	5	4	4	19:19	0	19
21	Chesham	13	3	1	9	18:30	-12	10

Last Results with these Odds

Chesham United - the odds 1.88 are the expected chance of winning is 46.74%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dover Athletic
English National League South
18.04.26	Maidenhead United - Dover Athletic	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Dover Athletic - Farnborough	4:1 ✺
06.04.26	Ebbsfleet United - Dover Athletic	4:0 ✺
03.04.26	Dover Athletic - Maidstone United	0:2 ✺
28.03.26	Salisbury - Dover Athletic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWLLL
- Chesham United
English National League South
18.04.26	Chesham United - Chelmsford City	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Bath City - Chesham United	4:2 ✺
06.04.26	Chesham United - Slough Town	4:1 ✺
03.04.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Chesham United	0:3 ✺
31.03.26	Enfield Town - Chesham United	3:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
06.12.25	Chesham United - Dover Athletic	0:1

Dover Athletic - Chesham United