Match Info

3. Liga - Round 8

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena (Duisburg)

Referee: Bickel F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport
World	Onefootball


	Duisburg		Ingolstadt

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.4	2.9	Watch
	2.18	3.6	2.88
	2.31	3.8	2.91
	1.07	1.00	1.00	Watch
	2.19	3.55	2.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.19)	3.07 ↓ (3.75)	2.52 ↓ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Duisburg
41%

Draw
26.6%

Ingolstadt
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.7%

24.4%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.7%

23.3%

32.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Duisburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Ingolstadt has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Duisburg than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ingolstadt than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Duisburg - Ingolstadt Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Duisburg (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Duisburg will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Duisburg will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Duisburg (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Braune M. (G) 29. Bitter J. 5. Fleckstein T. 42. Hahn A. 27. Coskun C. 17. Gockan M. 6. Bulic R. 23. Symalla J. 10. Viet C. 14. Noss C. 26. Kruger F.	1. Ponath M. (G) 20. Deichmann Y. 15. Scholz J. 32. Lorenz S. 19. Rosenlocher L. 34. Frode L. (C) 22. Costly M. 17. Besuschkow M. 8. Carlsen F. 7. Sturm Y. 9. Borchers M.
Substitutes
9. Heike T. 20. Jessen N. 18. Meuer S. 24. Paris J. (G) 38. Sadlek G. E. 40. Schlicke B. 37. Sussek P. 22. Topken T. 33. Tugbenyo J.	11. Christensen F. 24. Christensen G. 4. Decker E. 25. Eisele K. (G) 29. Kugel J. 23. Maljojoki J. 39. Ozturk B. 14. Plath M. 33. Sekulovic D.
Coaches
Hirsch D.	Wittmann S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Bitter J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Borchers M. ↓, Christensen F. ↑,
57', Gockan M. ↓, Sussek P. ↑,
63', Besuschkow M. 🟨,
64', Sturm Y. ↓, Christensen G. ↑,
70', Rosenlocher L. ↓, Sekulovic D. ↑,
70', Besuschkow M. ↓, Plath M. ↑,
72', 0 - 1, Sekulovic D. ⚽, Costly M. (A),
72', Viet C. ↓, Heike T. ↑,
72', Kruger F. ↓, Meuer S. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Sussek P. ⚽, Symalla J. (A),
77', Scholz J. 🟨,
84', 2 - 1, Christensen F. (Own goal),
87', Symalla J. ↓, Tugbenyo J. ↑,
87', Costly M. ↓, Kugel J. ↑,
90+5', Christensen F. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ 2. Bundesliga and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Duisburg won 0.

Duisburg is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ingolstadt has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Duisburg has had a series of away games.

Duisburg is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Duisburg won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 15:29. (average 1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Duisburg won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:16. (average 1:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MSV Duisburg
German 3 Bundesliga
21.09.25	TSV Havelse - Duisburg	1:1 ✺
16.09.25	Schweinfurt - Duisburg	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Duisburg - Wehen Wiesbaden	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
04.09.25	Bochum - Duisburg	1:0 ✺
German 3 Bundesliga
30.08.25	Verl - Duisburg	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 TWWLW
- FC Ingolstadt 04
German 3 Bundesliga
20.09.25	Ingolstadt - Wehen Wiesbaden	0:0 ✺
17.09.25	TSV Havelse - Ingolstadt	2:6 ✺
13.09.25	Ingolstadt - Schweinfurt	2:3 ✺
30.08.25	Energie Cottbus - Ingolstadt	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	Ingolstadt - Hansa Rostock	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TWLTT

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
20.04.24	Ingolstadt - Duisburg	2:0
11.11.23	Duisburg - Ingolstadt	1:2
12.05.23	Ingolstadt - Duisburg	2:0
12.11.22	Duisburg - Ingolstadt	0:1
15.05.21	Duisburg - Ingolstadt	1:5
10.01.21	Ingolstadt - Duisburg	2:1
25.01.20	Duisburg - Ingolstadt	1:1

Upcoming Matches