Match Info

GERMANY: 3. LIGA - ROUND 17

Date: 2 December 2023, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Germany	Magenta Sport


	Duisburg		Lübeck

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.3	2.88
	2.37	3.4	2.8
				Watch
	2.5	3.5	2.96
	2.5	3.38	2.96
	2.25	3.3	2.62
	2.36	3.48	2.72	Watch
	2.32	3.3	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.22)	3.38 ↑ (3.3)	2.81 ↓ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Duisburg
39.2%

Draw
27.6%

Lübeck
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.1%

27.7%

31.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

26.3%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Duisburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Lübeck has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Duisburg than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lübeck than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
37.5%	50%	12.5%

Duisburg - Lübeck Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Duisburg will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Lübeck will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Muller V. (G) 21. Feltscher R. 29. Bitter J. 17. Knoll M. 2. Mogultay B. 6. Bakalorz M. 18. Jander C. 10. Pledl T. 16. Michelbrink J. 11. Kolle N. 26. Mai S.	1. Klewin P. (G) 7. Hauptmann M. 17. Grupe T. (C) 27. Reddemann S. 37. Sternberg J. 25. Gozusirin T. 8. Egerer F. 20. Taffertshofer U. 31. Boland M. 29. Facklam M. 14. Akono C.
Substitutes
24. Braune M. (G) 5. Castaneda S. 40. Esswein A. 15. Fleckstein T. 31. Girth B. 22. Kother T. 20. Muller R. 7. Pusch K. 23. Stierlin N.	23. Daube M. 40. Diestel P. 10. Farrona-Pulido M. 3. Kastenhofer N. 30. Lohden J. 33. Schneider J. 22. Sommer L. 13. Thiel M. 21. Velasco R.
Coaches
Schommers B.	Pfeiffer L.

Preview

Duisburg is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Lübeck is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Duisburg could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Duisburg won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Duisburg won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MSV Duisburg
German 3 Bundesliga
29.11.23	Saarbrücken - Duisburg	0:0 ✺
25.11.23	Sandhausen - Duisburg	2:0 ✺
11.11.23	Duisburg - Ingolstadt	1:2 ✺
05.11.23	Waldhof Mannheim - Duisburg	0:0 ✺
28.10.23	Duisburg - Rot-Weiß Essen	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TLLTL
- Vfb Lübeck
German 3 Bundesliga
26.11.23	Lübeck - Arminia Bielefeld	2:2 ✺
11.11.23	Borussia Dortmund II - Lübeck	1:1 ✺
04.11.23	Lübeck - Unterhaching	2:3 ✺
29.10.23	Verl - Lübeck	4:0 ✺
21.10.23	Lübeck - Viktoria Köln	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 TTLLW

Latest Head to Head

German 3 Bundesliga
31.01.21	Duisburg - Lübeck	3:1
03.10.20	Lübeck - Duisburg	1:1

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