Match Info

SCOTLAND: League One - Round 21

Date: 4 March 2025, Tuesday

Location: Dumbarton Football Stadium (Dumbarton)


	Dumbarton		Arbroath

	1	X	2
	5.25	4	1.57
	4.6	3.9	1.57
	4.85	4.21	1.57
	5.03	4.18	1.6	Watch
	5	4	1.62
	4.88	4.1	1.58	Watch
	4.6	3.9	1.57
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.89 ↑ (4.28)	4.04 ↑ (3.79)	1.58 ↓ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dumbarton
18.9%

Draw
22.8%

Arbroath
58.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.6%

24.3%

54.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21%

23.6%

55.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dumbarton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Arbroath has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dumbarton than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arbroath than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Dumbarton - Arbroath Predictions

Users Predictions: Arbroath will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Sliwinski M. (G) 2. Lynas A. 5. Durnan M. (C) 31. Miller M. 12. Pignatiello C. 20. Niang M. 11. Wallace T. 3. Young G. 23. Ruth M. 7. Orsi K. 9. Mumbongo J.	21. McAdams A. (G) 19. Penman C. 5. O'Brien T. (C) 2. Steele A. 4. Wilkie J. 12. Stewart S. 7. Gold D. 14. Taylor F. 6. Stanton S. 11. Dow R. 25. Winter A.
Substitutes
6. Blair R. 24. Clark C. 14. Gilfedder A. 10. Gray F. 17. Hilton J. 13. Kelly S. (G) 21. McGuffie C. 22. Shiels M. 18. Webster K.	20. Flynn R. 9. Gallagher C. 17. King B. 31. Mcconnell J. (G) 27. Muirhead A. 22. Murray I. 26. Thomson J. 15. Watson K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Ruth M. ⚽,
15', 1 - 1, Winter A. ⚽, Taylor F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', 1 - 2, Taylor F. ⚽,
53', Ruth M. ↓, Hilton J. ↑,
54', Gold D. ↓, Flynn R. ↑,
65', O'Brien T. ↓, Muirhead A. ↑,
65', Taylor F. ↓, Gallagher C. ↑,
69', Wallace T. ↓, Gray F. ↑,
69', Young G. ↓, Shiels M. ↑,
69', Orsi K. ↓, McGuffie C. ↑,
82', Niang M. ↓, Blair R. ↑,
89', Dow R. ↓, Watson K. ↑,

Preview

Postponed due to frozen pitch.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Dumbarton won 2.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Arbroath will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Dumbarton won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13:10 (average 1.3:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Dumbarton won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:4 (average 1.2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dumbarton
Scottish League One
01.03.25	Dumbarton - Stenhousemuir	1:3 ✺
22.02.25	Cove Rangers - Dumbarton	2:1 ✺
15.02.25	Dumbarton - Montrose	2:3 ✺
08.02.25	Annan Athletic - Dumbarton	2:1 ✺
01.02.25	Dumbarton - Alloa Athletic	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLT
- Arbroath
Scottish League One
01.03.25	Arbroath - Annan Athletic	3:0 ✺
25.02.25	Arbroath - Kelty Hearts	2:1 ✺
22.02.25	Stenhousemuir - Arbroath	2:0 ✺
15.02.25	Queen of the South - Arbroath	0:3 ✺
08.02.25	Arbroath - Inverness	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
19.10.24	Arbroath - Dumbarton	1:3
24.08.24	Dumbarton - Arbroath	2:2
04.05.19	Arbroath - Dumbarton	1:1
02.03.19	Dumbarton - Arbroath	2:0
20.10.18	Arbroath - Dumbarton	3:1
18.08.18	Dumbarton - Arbroath	1:1
Scottish Football Championship
05.05.18	Dumbarton - Arbroath	1:1

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