Match Info

Challenge Cup - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 9 December 2025, Tuesday

Location: Gayfield Park (Arbroath)


	Arbroath		Kelty Hearts

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	7
	1.32	5.29	7.22
	1.33	5.13	7.16	Watch
	1.33	4.6	7
	1.36	5.11	7.15
	1.32	5	7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.38)	5.02 ↑ (4.71)	7.09 ↑ (6.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Arbroath
68.8%

Draw
18.3%

Kelty Hearts
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.6%

19.5%

13.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.6%

18.4%

13.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Arbroath has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Kelty Hearts has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arbroath than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kelty Hearts than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Arbroath - Kelty Hearts Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Arbroath will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
16', 0 - 1, Ferguson A. ⚽,
41', 0 - 2, Paterson B. ⚽, McCarvel L. (A),
44', 1 - 2, Dow R. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
84', 2 - 2, Pettifer A. ⚽,
87', 3 - 2, Mebude D. ⚽,

Preview

Arbroath has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Kelty Hearts is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Arbroath has had a series of away games.

Recently, Kelty Hearts has had a series of home games.

In this match, Arbroath is the clear favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Arbroath won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 1.6:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Arbroath won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:6. (average 1.7:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Arbroath
Scottish Football Championship
06.12.25	Dunfermline Athletic - Arbroath	1:2 ✺
Scottish Cup
29.11.25	East Fife - Arbroath	0:2 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
22.11.25	Arbroath - Raith Rovers	0:0 ✺
15.11.25	Ayr United - Arbroath	1:1 ✺
08.11.25	Greenock Morton - Arbroath	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 WWTTL
- Kelty Hearts
Scottish League One
06.12.25	Kelty Hearts - Montrose	0:3 ✺
Scottish Cup
29.11.25	Kelty Hearts - Brechin City	2:0 ✺
Scottish League One
22.11.25	Hamilton Academical - Kelty Hearts	3:1 ✺
15.11.25	Kelty Hearts - Queen of the South	1:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
11.11.25	Kelty Hearts - Hearts B	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
22.03.25	Kelty Hearts - Arbroath	1:1
25.02.25	Arbroath - Kelty Hearts	2:1
17.12.24	Kelty Hearts - Arbroath	3:2
17.08.24	Arbroath - Kelty Hearts	0:3
Scottish League Cup
24.07.21	Arbroath - Kelty Hearts	3:2

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