Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 6

Date: 19 November 2025, Wednesday

Location: Dumbarton Football Stadium (Dumbarton)


	Dumbarton		Stenhousemuir

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.9	2.05
	2.92	3.75	2.12
	2.78	3.7	2.17
	2.40	3.84	2.40	Watch
	2.98	3.48	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↑ (2.42)	3.73 ↑ (3.63)	2.17 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dumbarton
33.2%

Draw
24.5%

Stenhousemuir
42.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

25%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

24.9%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dumbarton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Stenhousemuir has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dumbarton than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stenhousemuir than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	14.3%	57.1%

Dumbarton - Stenhousemuir Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Dumbarton will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Stenhousemuir will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stenhousemuir will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45+9', 0 - 1, Taylor R. ⚽, Gray F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
86', 0 - 2, O'Reilly E. ⚽, Taylor R. (A),

Preview

Dumbarton is Qualified for Challenge Cup (Play Offs 1/16~finals)

Stenhousemuir is Qualified for Challenge Cup (Play Offs 1/16~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dumbarton won 0.

Dumbarton has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Stenhousemuir is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Dumbarton won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 20:29. (average 1.1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Dumbarton won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:14. (average 0.9:1.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Stenhousemuir - the odds 2.43 are the expected chance of winning is 37.36%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dumbarton
Scottish League Two
15.11.25	Elgin City - Dumbarton	2:0 ✺
08.11.25	Dumbarton - Annan Athletic	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	Clyde - Dumbarton	3:1 ✺
18.10.25	Dumbarton - Spartans	1:2 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
11.10.25	Dumbarton - Glasgow Rangers B	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LWLLW
- Stenhousemuir
Scottish League One
15.11.25	East Fife - Stenhousemuir	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Stenhousemuir - Kelty Hearts	2:2 ✺
01.11.25	Queen of the South - Stenhousemuir	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Alloa Athletic - Stenhousemuir	0:0 ✺
18.10.25	Cove Rangers - Stenhousemuir	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LTTTW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish League One
03.05.25	Stenhousemuir - Dumbarton	2:1
01.03.25	Dumbarton - Stenhousemuir	1:3
07.12.24	Stenhousemuir - Dumbarton	4:0
05.10.24	Dumbarton - Stenhousemuir	1:3
Scottish League Two
30.03.24	Dumbarton - Stenhousemuir	0:0
03.02.24	Stenhousemuir - Dumbarton	1:0
09.12.23	Dumbarton - Stenhousemuir	0:1

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