Match Info

Division 1 - Round 22

Date: 4 July 2025, Friday

Location: Mounthawk Park (Tralee)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ireland	LOI TV


	Kerry		Dundalk

	1	X	2
	4.6	3.5	1.63
	4.85	3.65	1.65
	5.03	3.85	1.67
				Watch
	4.8	3.4	1.67
	4.9	3.64	1.66
	4.85	3.65	1.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.84 ↓ (4.91)	3.62 ↓ (3.69)	1.66 ↑ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Kerry
19%

Draw
25.4%

Dundalk
55.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.9%

25.1%

56%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.2%

24.2%

58%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kerry has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Dundalk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kerry than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dundalk than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.1%	0%	76.9%

Kerry - Dundalk Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Kerry will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). Dundalk will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dundalk: 54% – 99.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Dundalk will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hiemer T. (G) 2. Dunne A. 5. McQueen C. 3. O'Connell S. 15. Williams K. 6. Mujaguzi C. 4. Crowe O. 28. Brookwell N. 7. Mcgrath S. (C) 21. Palmer L. 11. Okwute D.	1. Minogue E. (G) 3. Keogh S. 4. Animasahun M. 15. Leonard V. 31. Wilson J. 16. Kenny E. 8. Groome H. 6. Dervin A. 7. Horgan D. (C) 11. Arubi G. 9. Ebbe D.
Substitutes
10. Adams J. 20. Alabi A. 18. Aladesanusi S. 12. Amechi K. 23. Barrett F. 17. Brosnan C. 35. Healy A. 30. Randriamamy M. (G) 8. Teahan R.	18. Cherrie P. (G) 27. McDaid D. 5. McHale S. 12. Mulligan L. 98. Paraschiv A. 19. Spaight S. 26. Tracey S. 17. Ward K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
16', Palmer L. 🟨,
20', 0 - 1, Groome H. ⚽,
30', Keogh S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Mujaguzi C. ↓, Healy A. ↑,
60', 0 - 2, Kenny E. ⚽,
61', Horgan D. ↓, McDaid D. ↑,
69', Groome H. ↓, Paraschiv A. ↑,
70', Keogh S. ↓, McHale S. ↑,
70', Arubi G. ↓, Ward K. ↑,
71', McQueen C. 🟨,
76', Dunne A. ↓, Barrett F. ↑,
81', Wilson J. ↓, Mulligan L. ↑,
85', Amechi K. 🟨,
90+2', Brookwell N. 🟨,
90+3', 0 - 3, Ward K. ⚽,
90+4', 0 - 4, Paraschiv A. ⚽,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Dundalk is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Kerry won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Kerry won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kerry FC Ireland
Irish Division 1
27.06.25	Wexford - Kerry	4:3 ✺
23.06.25	Cobh Ramblers - Kerry	1:0 ✺
20.06.25	Kerry - Bray Wanderers	2:1 ✺
13.06.25	Athlone Town - Kerry	2:2 ✺
30.05.25	Kerry - Longford Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LLWTW
- Dundalk FC
Irish Division 1
27.06.25	Dundalk - Cobh Ramblers	1:0 ✺
23.06.25	Finn Harps - Dundalk	1:0 ✺
20.06.25	Dundalk - Treaty United	1:1 ✺
13.06.25	Dundalk - University College Dublin	1:1 ✺
30.05.25	Wexford - Dundalk	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Irish Division 1
23.05.25	Dundalk - Kerry	2:0
28.02.25	Kerry - Dundalk	0:1

Upcoming Matches