Match Info

SCOTLAND: CHAMPIONSHIP - ROUND 28

Date: 21 March 2023, Tuesday

Location: Dens Park (Dundee)

Referee: Kirkland S. (Sco)


	Dundee		Ayr United

	1	X	2
	1.67	4	4.2	Watch
	1.7	3.8	4
	1.7	3.95	4.1
	1.81	3.5	3.65
	1.72	4.22	4.32
	1.7	3.6	4.33	Watch
	1.69	4	4.3	Watch
	1.7	3.9	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.83)	3.87 ↑ (3.42)	4.11 ↑ (3.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dundee
53.8%

Draw
23.8%

Ayr United
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.5%

26.5%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.9%

25.8%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dundee has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Ayr United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Dundee than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	8.3%	8.3%

Dundee - Ayr United Predictions

Users Predictions: Dundee will win (20 of 24 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.42% – 98.24%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Dundee won 3.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Ayr could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Ayr have a series of guest games.

In this match Dundee is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Dundee won 6 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 14-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Dundee won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dundee FC
Scottish Football Championship
18.03.23	Partick Thistle - Dundee	0:0 ✺
04.03.23	Cove Rangers - Dundee	0:2 ✺
28.02.23	Dundee - Partick Thistle	1:3 ✺
25.02.23	Dundee - Inverness	1:1 ✺
17.02.23	Greenock Morton - Dundee	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TWLTL
- Ayr United
Scottish Football Championship
18.03.23	Hamilton Academical - Ayr United	0:2 ✺
Scottish Cup
13.03.23	Falkirk - Ayr United	2:1 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
07.03.23	Greenock Morton - Ayr United	1:3 ✺
04.03.23	Ayr United - Inverness	1:2 ✺
24.02.23	Raith Rovers - Ayr United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
23.12.22	Ayr United - Dundee	0:2
15.10.22	Dundee - Ayr United	2:1
26.08.22	Ayr United - Dundee	3:1
06.04.21	Ayr United - Dundee	0:3
16.03.21	Dundee - Ayr United	1:3
21.11.20	Ayr United - Dundee	2:0
10.03.20	Dundee - Ayr United	2:0

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