Match Info

Championship - Round 20

Date: 27 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Cappielow Park (Greenock)

Referee: Hardie R. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Grenock Morton


	Greenock Morton		Ayr United

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.1	2.38
	2.92	3.15	2.38	Watch
	2.96	3.09	2.48	Watch
	2.9	2.9	2.5
	2.94	3	2.35	Watch
	2.85	3.14	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↓ (3.24)	3.06 ↓ (3.17)	2.42 ↑ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Greenock Morton
31.9%

Draw
30%

Ayr United
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.8%

29.5%

41.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

28.5%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Greenock Morton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

Ayr United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Greenock Morton than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ayr United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	80%	0%

Greenock Morton - Ayr United Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Greenock will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Greenock (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Storer J. (G) 20. Comrie A. 6. Moore K. 23. Longridge J. (C) 3. Delaney Z. 27. Wilson I. 8. Blues C. 29. O'Halloran M. 24. Lyall A. 18. Garrity M. 10. Brophy E.	38. Russell L. (G) 2. McAllister N. 20. King L. 5. Holt K. 33. McMann S. 22. McKenzie M. 6. Bannigan S. 8. Dempsey B. (C) 23. Rus M. 7. Dowds A. 15. Murphy J.
Substitutes
9. Adeloye T. 2. Ballantyne C. 35. Black D. 4. Corr D. 30. Holloway H. 7. Moffat O. 41. Murdoch S. (G) 22. Shaw N.	12. Brown A. 18. Hislop J. 10. Main C. 1. Mitchell D. (G) 35. Simpson J. 11. Thomas D. 4. Want S.
Coaches
Davies B.	Brown S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Dowds A. ⚽,
29', Holt K. 🟨,
33', Wilson I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 1 - 1, Lyall A. ⚽, Brophy E. (A),
50', Comrie A. 🟨,
67', Blues C. ↓, Moffat O. ↑,
67', O'Halloran M. ↓, Shaw N. ↑,
78', Murphy J. ↓, Main C. ↑,
85', Brophy E. ↓, Adeloye T. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Greenock won 1.

Greenock has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ayr is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Greenock may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Ayr has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Greenock won 6 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 25:22. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Greenock won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:14. (average 1.8:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Ayr United - the odds 2.24 are the expected chance of winning is 41.7%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Greenock Morton
Scottish Football Championship
20.12.25	St. Johnstone - Greenock Morton	5:0 ✺
13.12.25	Greenock Morton - Airdrieonians	0:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
09.12.25	Stirling Albion - Greenock Morton	3:2 penalties ✺
Scottish Football Championship
05.12.25	Greenock Morton - Queens Park	2:1 ✺
Scottish Cup
29.11.25	Peterhead - Greenock Morton	2:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLLWW
- Ayr United
Scottish Football Championship
20.12.25	Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United	2:3 ✺
12.12.25	Ayr United - St. Johnstone	2:4 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
09.12.25	Ayr United - Peterhead	2:1 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
06.12.25	Ayr United - Partick Thistle	0:0 ✺
Scottish Cup
29.11.25	Ayr United - Turriff United	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
18.10.25	Ayr United - Greenock Morton	2:1
23.08.25	Greenock Morton - Ayr United	2:2
08.03.25	Greenock Morton - Ayr United	2:1
28.12.24	Ayr United - Greenock Morton	0:0
Scottish Cup
30.11.24	Ayr United - Greenock Morton	2:0
Scottish Football Championship
08.11.24	Greenock Morton - Ayr United	1:1
28.09.24	Ayr United - Greenock Morton	1:0

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