Match Info

Championship - Round 4

Date: 28 August 2026, Friday

Location: East End Park (Dunfermline)

Referee: Nicolson D. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Scotland	BBC Scotland
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport, ParsTV Dunfermline, Raith TV
Usa	Paramount+, SportsEngine Play


	Dunfermline Athletic		Raith Rovers

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.20	2.63
	2.37	3.20	2.55
	2.40	3.30	2.55	Watch
	2.74	3.32	2.70
	2.63	3.3	2.63	Watch
	2.45	3.10	2.95
	2.50	3.40	2.79	Watch
	2.44	3.25	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (2.46)	3.26 ↓ (3.38)	2.69 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dunfermline Athletic
37.2%

Draw
28.4%

Raith Rovers
34.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.1%

27%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

27.2%

35.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dunfermline Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Raith Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dunfermline Athletic than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raith Rovers than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Dunfermline Athletic - Raith Rovers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Oxborough A. (G) 24. Lobban D. 15. Cleall-Harding S. 6. Abdulai N. 47. Fraser R. (C) 14. Amade A. 22. Bray K. 19. Oyirwoth A. 7. Morrison C. 9. Rudden Z. 99. Adams O.	1. Rae J. (G) 2. Rowe J. 5. Fordyce C. 4. Hanlon P. (C) 3. Delaney Z. 21. Telfer Ch. 14. Adamson C. 11. Robertson J. 25. Montagu K. 18. McMullan P. 19. Dowds A.
Substitutes
33. Cooper J. 18. Corbally K. 12. Dibaga M. (G) 25. Donnelly A. 8. Gilmour C. 20. Kane Ch. 11. Kearney S. 10. Shaw O. 26. Tod A.	13. Armstrong L. (G) . Baird J. 20. Brown S. 23. Easton D. 22. Millen R. 9. Oakley G. 16. Stevenson L. 15. Tiffoney S. 8. Turner K.
Coaches
Lennon N.	Imrie D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Fordyce C. ↓, Baird J. ↑,
30', Cleall-Harding S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Montagu K. ↓, Tiffoney S. ↑,
60', Telfer Ch. ↓, Brown S. ↑,
60', Robertson J. ↓, Easton D. ↑,
62', Rudden Z. ↓, Tod A. ↑,
69', Adams O. ↓, Kane Ch. ↑,
69', Bray K. ↓, Gilmour C. ↑,
79', Dowds A. 🟨,
83', Adamson C. ↓, Turner K. ↑,
84', Gilmour C. 🟨,
85', Oyirwoth A. ↓, Cooper J. ↑,
85', Morrison C. ↓, Corbally K. ↑,
88', 1 - 0, Cooper J. ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 8 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premiership (Promotion: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dunfermline won 3.

Dunfermline has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Raith is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Raith may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Dunfermline won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 19:22. (average 1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Dunfermline won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:8. (average 1.4:0.8).

Outrights of Scottish Football Championship for now

Raith: 15.39% Dunfermline: 8.83%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Raith	9	5	2	2	13:6	7	17
5	Dunfermline	7	3	3	1	6:4	2	12

Last Results with these Odds

Dunfermline Athletic - the odds 2.46 are the expected chance of winning is 37.09%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dunfermline Athletic
Scottish Football Championship
22.08.26	Livingston - Dunfermline Athletic	2:0 ✺
Scottish League Cup
15.08.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Ross County	1:2 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
08.08.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United	1:1 ✺
01.08.26	Inverness - Dunfermline Athletic	0:0 ✺
Scottish League Cup
26.07.26	St. Mirren - Dunfermline Athletic	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LLTTW
- Raith Rovers
Scottish Football Championship
22.08.26	Raith Rovers - Ayr United	2:0 ✺
08.08.26	Queens Park - Raith Rovers	1:2 ✺
01.08.26	Raith Rovers - Stenhousemuir	1:1 ✺
Scottish League Cup
21.07.26	Raith Rovers - Peterhead	1:0 ✺
18.07.26	Hamilton Academical - Raith Rovers	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
14.03.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Raith Rovers	3:0
27.12.25	Raith Rovers - Dunfermline Athletic	1:2
17.10.25	Dunfermline Athletic - Raith Rovers	2:0
22.08.25	Raith Rovers - Dunfermline Athletic	2:0
14.03.25	Raith Rovers - Dunfermline Athletic	2:0
01.02.25	Dunfermline Athletic - Raith Rovers	3:1
14.12.24	Raith Rovers - Dunfermline Athletic	2:0

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