Match Info

Conference League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 6 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Motor Lublin Arena (Lublin)

Referee: Krogh M. (Den)

Where to Watch on TV:


Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Ukraine	2plus2
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Dynamo Kyiv		Qarabağ Agdam

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.1	3.25	Watch
	2.12	3.25	3.25	Watch
	2.13	3.43	3.23
	2.2	3.5	3.32	Watch
	2.15	3.2	3.15
	2.21	3.34	3.34	Watch
	2.2	3.25	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.15 ↓ (2.19)	3.3 ↑ (3.26)	3.24 ↓ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dynamo Kyiv
43.2%

Draw
28.2%

Qarabağ Agdam
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

28.6%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

27.9%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dynamo Kyiv has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

The chances for Qarabağ Agdam have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dynamo Kyiv than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Qarabağ Agdam than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55%	20%	25%

Dynamo Kyiv - Qarabağ Agdam Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Dynamo will win (votes: 11 - 55%). Qarabağ will win (votes: 5 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Dynamo: 33.2% – 76.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
71. Surkis V. (G) 5. Sych O. 94. Kedziora T. 32. Mykhavko T. 44. Dubinchak V. (C) 6. Brazhko V. 15. Rubchynskyi V. 39. Guerrero E. 21. Lonwijk J. 70. Redushko B. 11. Ponomarenko M.	99. Kochalski M. (G) 25. Makreckis C. 2. Matheus Silva 4. Varkonyi B. 44. Cafarquliyev E. 35. Pedro Bicalho 8. Jankovic M. 7. Mouaddib J. 10. Zoubir A. (C) 29. Cephas R. 21. Kashchuk O.
Substitutes
40. Bilovar K. 29. Buyalskyy V. 22. Kabaev V. 99. Mounguengue P. 35. Neshcheret R. (G) 43. Olkhovyi I. (G) 8. Pikhalyonok O. 10. Shaparenko M. 66. Thiare A. 18. Tymchyk O. 9. Voloshyn N. 7. Yarmolenko A.	49. Bashirov A. 32. Cabrayilzada H. 55. Huseynov B. 20. Kady Borges 5. Langa B. 88. Lobato S. 1. Mahammadaliyev S. (G) 9. Montiel J. 13. Mustafazada B. 22. Qurbanly M. 23. Zlomislic M. (G)
Coaches
Kostyuk I.	Qurbanov Q.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Ponomarenko M. ⚽,
14', Dubinchak V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
62', Cephas R. ↓, Qurbanly M. ↑,
62', Kashchuk O. ↓, Kady Borges ↑,
69', Lonwijk J. ↓, Shaparenko M. ↑,
69', Dubinchak V. ↓, Tymchyk O. ↑,
69', Guerrero E. ↓, Voloshyn N. ↑,
75', Pedro Bicalho ↓, Lobato S. ↑,
75', Cafarquliyev E. ↓, Langa B. ↑,
79', Jankovic M. ↓, Montiel J. ↑,
80', Redushko B. ↓, Kabaev V. ↑,
81', Kedziora T. 🟨,
87', Rubchynskyi V. ↓, Pikhalyonok O. ↑,
90+1', Makreckis C. 🟥,
90+4', Matheus Silva 🟨,
90+5', Shaparenko M. 🟨,

Preview

First leg. Playing home matches at a different stadium - Motor Lublin Arena.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Dynamo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Dynamo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Including home match between the teams, Dynamo won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Dynamo Kyiv
UEFA Europa League
30.07.26	PAOK - Dynamo Kyiv	2:0 ✺
23.07.26	Dynamo Kyiv - PAOK	2:3 ✺
16.07.26	Universitatea Cluj - Dynamo Kyiv	0:1 penalties ✺
Club Friendly
10.07.26	Radomiak Radom - Dynamo Kyiv	2:4 ✺
UEFA Europa League
09.07.26	Dynamo Kyiv - Universitatea Cluj	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLWWT
- FK Qarabağ Agdam
UEFA Europa League
30.07.26	CSKA Sofia - Qarabağ Agdam	1:0 penalties ✺
23.07.26	Qarabağ Agdam - CSKA Sofia	0:0 ✺
16.07.26	Vestri - Qarabağ Agdam	0:3 ✺
09.07.26	Qarabağ Agdam - Vestri	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
01.07.26	Ferencvárosi - Qarabağ Agdam	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
04.07.18	Dynamo Kyiv - Qarabağ Agdam	1:0

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