Match Info

Paulista - Round 3

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Ítalo Mário Limongi (Indaiatuba)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	HBO Max


	EC Primavera		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
	3	2.8	2.55	Watch
	2.92	2.82	2.58	Watch
	3.03	2.86	2.6	Watch
	2.8	2.63	2.6
	3.09	2.6	2.56	Watch
	3.25	2.6	2.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.02 ↑ (2.9)	2.72 ↓ (3.33)	2.6 ↑ (2.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

EC Primavera
30.6%

Draw
33.9%

Grêmio Novorizontino
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.3%

28.1%

39.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

EC Primavera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

EC Primavera - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Novorizontino (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Novorizontino (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Victor Hugo (G) 2. Kevin 3. Afonso 4. Ligger 6. Thales Oleques 5. Junior Caicara (C) 8. Luan Martins 11. Welliton 10. Renatinho 7. Paulo Baya 9. Gabriel Poveda	93. Jordi (G) 22. Ivan Alvarino 25. Dantas 14. Eduardo Brock (C) 77. Mayk 6. Luis Oyama 18. Leo Naldi 15. Tavinho 10. Romulo 19. Diego Galo 11. Robson
Substitutes
12. Dheimison (G) 16. Joao Victor 17. Josiel 25. Kauan Cunha 18. Leo Passos 19. Lucas Douglas 23. Luiz Fernando 21. Matheus Anjos 15. Paulinho 14. Renato Vischi 20. Richard Almeyda 13. Samuel Andrade	31. Cesar Augusto (G) 26. Gabriel Bahia 41. Helio Borges 5. Jean Irmer 50. Juninho 21. Kauan Alemao 24. Lora J. 17. Matheus Bianqui 66. Maykon Jesus 30. Nicolas Careca 4. Patrick 16. Vinicius Paiva
Coaches
Rafael Marques	Moreira E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Gabriel Poveda ⚽, Welliton (A),
20', 2 - 0, Renatinho ⚽, Paulo Baya (A),
34', 2 - 1, Romulo (Penalty Awarded),
43', Paulo Baya 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Diego Galo ↓, Maykon Jesus ↑,
46', Luan Martins ↓, Samuel Andrade ↑,
46', Renatinho ↓, Matheus Anjos ↑,
49', 3 - 1, Jordi (Own goal),
55', 3 - 2, Robson ⚽, Maykon Jesus (A),
60', Junior Caicara ↓, Richard Almeyda ↑,
67', 3 - 3, Maykon Jesus ⚽, Romulo (A),
69', Eduardo Brock ↓, Patrick ↑,
69', Tavinho ↓, Helio Borges ↑,
75', Leo Naldi 🟨,
76', Leo Naldi ↓, Juninho ↑,
78', Gabriel Poveda ↓, Leo Passos ↑,
82', Welliton ↓, Kauan Cunha ↑,
85', Romulo ↓, Matheus Bianqui ↑,
87', Patrick 🟨,
90+4', 3 - 4, Robson ⚽, Ivan Alvarino (A),

Preview

Primavera may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Novorizontino: Marlon (Inactive) Renato Palm (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Primavera: Yuri Lima (Inactive)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Primavera won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Including home match between the teams, Primavera won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Primavera
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
14.01.26	EC Primavera - Mirassol	3:1 ✺
10.01.26	Guarani - EC Primavera	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Paulista
11.10.25	Piracicaba - EC Primavera	2:0 ✺
05.10.25	EC Primavera - Piracicaba	1:0 ✺
28.09.25	EC Primavera - Grêmio Prudente	3:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 WTLWW
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
13.01.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Guarani	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Santos - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
22.11.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - CRB Maceio	3:0 ✺
16.11.25	Goiás - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0 ✺
08.11.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Remo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
11.02.23	EC Primavera - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:1

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