Match Info

Copa Paulista - Play Offs - Final

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Barao de Serra Negra (Piracicaba)


	Piracicaba		EC Primavera

	1	X	2
	2.12	3.05	3.15
	2.23	3.2	3.76
	2.04	3.84	2.97	Watch
	2.15	3.1	3.22	Watch
	2.1	3	3.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.17)	3.24 ↑ (3.1)	3.29 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Piracicaba
43.4%

Draw
28.5%

EC Primavera
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

29.6%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

30.9%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Piracicaba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

EC Primavera has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Piracicaba than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for EC Primavera than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Piracicaba - EC Primavera Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Reynaldo (G) 8. Carlos Manuel (C) 11. David Ribeiro 23. Gustavo L. 5. Hebling G. 6. Joao Victor 22. Leo Santos 4. Luis Felipe 2. Michel 9. Paulo Marcelo 10. Serginho	1. Levy (G) 3. Afonso 9. Brunao 4. Douglas Carvalho 7. Jean Silva 11. Josiel 5. Junior Caicara (C) 2. Kauan Martins 10. Matheus Anjos 8. Paulinho 6. Victor J.
Substitutes
14. Almir Luan 20. Anderson Magrao 1. Carlao (G) 25. Djavan 7. Erik Bessa 13. Gabriel Vidal 3. Iago 15. Matheus Carvalho 17. Messias 21. Natan 16. Rodrigo Carioca 18. Wesley Fraga	12. Ariel (G) 21. Augusto M. 16. Cesar 13. Gabriel Tobias 19. Henan 23. Kauan 15. Nelsinho 20. Raphael Luz 17. Renatinho 22. Vinicius Ferrari (G) 18. Vitor Braga

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45', Leo Santos 🟨,
45+4', Jean Silva 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
50', Victor J. 🟨,
58', Serginho ↓, Erik Bessa ↑,
58', David Ribeiro ↓, Matheus Carvalho ↑,
59', 1 - 0, Paulo Marcelo ⚽,
68', Brunao ↓, Henan ↑,
68', Matheus Anjos ↓, Renatinho ↑,
72', Gustavo L. ↓, Almir Luan ↑,
74', Victor J. ↓, Cesar ↑,
74', Paulinho ↓, Vitor Braga ↑,
81', Paulo Marcelo ↓, Anderson Magrao ↑,
81', Leo Santos ↓, Natan ↑,
88', Kauan Martins 🟨,
90+6', 2 - 0, Almir Luan ⚽,
90+7', Erik Bessa 🟨,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-1. 2nd leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Piracicaba won 1.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Piracicaba might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Piracicaba won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:8. (average 0.9:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Piracicaba won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:5. (average 1:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- XV de Piracicaba
Brazilian Copa Paulista
05.10.25	EC Primavera - Piracicaba	1:0 ✺
27.09.25	Piracicaba - Comercial SP	1:0 ✺
19.09.25	Comercial SP - Piracicaba	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Piracicaba - Osasco Sporting	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Osasco Sporting - Piracicaba	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LWTWW
- EC Primavera
Brazilian Copa Paulista
05.10.25	EC Primavera - Piracicaba	1:0 ✺
28.09.25	EC Primavera - Grêmio Prudente	3:1 penalties ✺
20.09.25	Grêmio Prudente - EC Primavera	1:0 ✺
12.09.25	União São João - EC Primavera	0:2 ✺
08.09.25	EC Primavera - União São João	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Paulista
05.10.25	EC Primavera - Piracicaba	1:0
10.08.25	EC Primavera - Piracicaba	0:2
04.07.25	Piracicaba - EC Primavera	1:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
01.03.25	EC Primavera - Piracicaba	0:0
24.02.24	Piracicaba - EC Primavera	1:1
Brazilian Copa Paulista
03.09.23	Piracicaba - EC Primavera	1:1
29.07.23	EC Primavera - Piracicaba	0:1

Piracicaba - EC Primavera: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide