Match Info
Copa Paulista - Play Offs - 1/8-finalsDate: 5 September 2026, SaturdayLocation: Estadio Distrital do Jardim Inamar (Sao Paulo)
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EC São Bernardo |
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Comercial SP |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 Watch |
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2.05 |
2.90 |
3.70 |
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 |
1.90 |
3.10 |
3.70 |
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 |
1.89 |
2.96 |
3.84 |
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2.03 |
2.75 |
3.70 |
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2.05 |
2.81 |
3.88 |
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 |
2.02 |
2.80 |
3.75 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.99 ↑
(1.93) |
2.89 ↓
(3.3) |
3.76 ↑
(3.58) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
- The best margin for this event is 10.1%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
EC São Bernardo
45.1% | Draw
31.1% | Comercial SP
23.8% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
EC São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)Comercial SP has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for EC São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+3.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Comercial SP than the current prediction. (+0.7%)EC São Bernardo - Comercial SP Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 68', 1 - 0, Soldado ⚽,
- 90+6', 2 - 0, Claudino F. (Penalty Awarded),
- Penalties (1 - 3)
- 1, (Penalty Awarded),
- 1, (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, (Penalty Awarded),
Preview
First leg result: 0-2.EC São Bernardo is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).Comercial SP's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).Recently, EC São Bernardo has had a series of away games. EC São Bernardo is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.In the last 2 head-to-head matches, EC São Bernardo won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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