Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie C - First stage - Round 12

Date: 8 July 2024, Monday

Location: Estadio Passo d'Areia (Porto Alegre)

Referee: Martins M. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	EC São José Porto Alegre		Floresta

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	2.95	3.4
	2.05	3	3.6
	2.1	3.05	3.66
	2.05	3.05	3.68
	2	3	3.4
	2.05	3.02	3.61	Watch
	2	3	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.04 ↑ (1.78)	3.01 ↓ (3.35)	3.59 ↓ (4.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

EC São José Porto Alegre
44.5%

Draw
30.2%

Floresta
25.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

27.4%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.3%

26.8%

21.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

EC São José Porto Alegre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that EC São José Porto Alegre's form might have worsened.

Floresta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for EC São José Porto Alegre than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for EC São José Porto Alegre, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Floresta than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	37.5%	50%

EC São José Porto Alegre - Floresta Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. EC São José will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Floresta will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio Rampi (G) 18. Alessandro Vinicius 10. Diogo Sodre 11. Emerson Brito 3. Fredson 9. Gabriel Morbeck 22. Matheuzinho 17. Nonato 14. Rafael Carillho 8. Samuel 4. Tiago Pedra	1. Luiz Daniel (G) 13. Andrew 23. Buba 31. Icaro 3. Lucas Santos 21. Marcelo (C) 15. Para 4. Ricardo Lima 11. Romarinho 2. Watson 10. Wescley
Substitutes
5. Carlos Alexandre 33. Edson Junior (G) 6. Evaristo 15. Gabriel Silva 21. Jean Lucca 20. Marcos Calazans 16. Nayssinho M. V. 7. Palacio A. 12. Peralta A. (G) 19. Rene Sousa 13. Thiago Tinoco	14. Alisson 16. Davi Castro 25. Emerson Carioca 29. Esquerdinha 7. Jean Silva 5. Jo 19. Lohan 8. Lucas Alisson 12. Wilderk (G)
Coaches
Pingo	Marcelo Cabo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Fredson 🟨,
34', Marcelo 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Wescley ↓, Esquerdinha ↑,
46', Diogo Sodre ↓, Palacio A. ↑,
51', Alessandro Vinicius 🟨,
54', Buba 🟨,
56', Palacio A. 🟨,
59', Buba ↓, Lohan ↑,
66', Emerson Brito ↓, Rene Sousa ↑,
74', Romarinho ↓, Jean Silva ↑,
75', Andrew ↓, Jo ↑,
76', Icaro 🟨,
79', Matheuzinho ↓, Edinho ↑,
83', Esquerdinha ↓, Diego Ferreira ↑,
90', Jo 🟨,
90+1', Lucas Santos 🟨,

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D).

EC São José Porto Alegre has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Floresta is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Floresta could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match EC São José Porto Alegre is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Floresta to win the game is with odds 3.9.

Last 2 head-to-head matches EC São José Porto Alegre won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-0.

Including matches at home between the teams EC São José Porto Alegre won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC São José Porto Alegre
Brazilian Serie C
04.07.24	EC São José Porto Alegre - Athletic Club	0:1 ✺
30.06.24	Ferroviária - EC São José Porto Alegre	1:0 ✺
23.06.24	EC São José Porto Alegre - Ypiranga	0:1 ✺
19.06.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - EC São José Porto Alegre	3:2 ✺
16.06.24	EC São José Porto Alegre - Londrina	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Floresta EC
Brazilian Serie C
30.06.24	Floresta - Caxias	2:1 ✺
22.06.24	Tombense - Floresta	3:0 ✺
17.06.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Floresta	0:1 ✺
10.06.24	Floresta - Confiança	1:0 ✺
02.06.24	ABC - Floresta	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.5 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
02.05.23	EC São José Porto Alegre - Floresta	0:0
11.06.22	EC São José Porto Alegre - Floresta	4:0

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