Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie C - First stage - Round 11

Date: 30 June 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Dr. Adhemar de Barros (Sao Paulo)

Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Ferroviária		EC São José Porto Alegre

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.5	3.5	6
	1.5	3.6	6.5
	1.52	3.6	7.16
	1.53	3.58	6.53
	1.44	3.5	6.5
	1.49	3.58	6.85	Watch
	1.51	3.5	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.5 ↓ (1.61)	3.55 ↑ (3.21)	6.56 ↑ (4.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviária
60.6%

Draw
25.6%

EC São José Porto Alegre
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.5%

27.4%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.4%

25.6%

16.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ferroviária's performance.

EC São José Porto Alegre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for EC São José Porto Alegre than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Ferroviária - EC São José Porto Alegre Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Saulo (C) 9. de Moura C. 3. Gustavo Medina 6. Igor Fernandes 4. Jackson 10. Juninho 2. Lucas Rodrigues 5. Ricardinho 8. Victor Andrade 11. Vitor Barreto 7. Ze Mateus	1. Fabio Rampi (G) 5. Davi 10. Edinho 11. Emerson Brito 2. Ferreira dos Santos D. 4. Jadson 6. Marcilio 14. Rafael Carillho 7. Rene Sousa 8. Samuel 3. Tiago Pedra
Substitutes
16. Caua A. 19. Denilson Goulart 23. Edson Lucas 21. Fernandinho 12. Leo Wall (G) 20. Luis Henrique 13. Maycon 17. Pablo 15. Paulinho Santos 14. Ronaldo Alves 18. Thailor 22. Weverton	18. Alessandro Vinicius 15. Evaristo 13. Fredson 9. Gabriel Morbeck 21. Gabriel Silva 19. Marcos Calazans 22. Matheuzinho 20. Nayssinho M. V. 17. Nonato 12. Peralta A. (G)
Coaches
Vinicius Bergantin	Pingo

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Juninho (Pen),
19', Tiago Pedra 🟨,
44', Vitor Barreto 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Samuel 🟨,
48', Rafael Carillho ↓, Gabriel Morbeck ↑,
48', Rene Sousa ↓, Nonato ↑,
59', Victor Andrade ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
59', Igor Fernandes ↓, Edson Lucas ↑,
72', Juninho ↓, Denilson Goulart ↑,
73', Vitor Barreto ↓, Luis Henrique ↑,
73', Ze Mateus ↓, Caua A. ↑,
76', Tiago Pedra ↓, Matheuzinho ↑,
87', Jadson ↓, Fredson ↑,
87', Gabriel Morbeck 🟥,
90+4', 1 - 0, Jackson ⚽,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D).

Recent matches Ferroviária is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

EC São José Porto Alegre is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

EC São José Porto Alegre could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Ferroviária have a series of guest games.

In this match Ferroviária is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie C
26.06.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
16.06.24	Caxias - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
08.06.24	Ferroviária - Aparecidense	0:0 ✺
01.06.24	Tombense - Ferroviária	0:0 ✺
26.05.24	Figueirense - Ferroviária	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TTTTW
- EC São José Porto Alegre
Brazilian Serie C
23.06.24	EC São José Porto Alegre - Ypiranga	0:1 ✺
19.06.24	Ferroviário Fortaleza - EC São José Porto Alegre	3:2 ✺
16.06.24	EC São José Porto Alegre - Londrina	0:2 ✺
10.06.24	CS Alagoano - EC São José Porto Alegre	1:1 ✺
03.06.24	EC São José Porto Alegre - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLLTW

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