Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 11

Date: 5 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho (Recife)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Nosso Futebol+, Sky+, Zapping


	Náutico Capibaribe		Floresta

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.3	5.25
	1.65	3.25	5.15	Watch
	1.74	3.23	5.49
				Watch
	1.62	3.2	5.5
	1.63	3.3	5.49	Watch
	1.65	3.35	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.69)	3.27 ↑ (3.27)	5.27 ↑ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
55.1%

Draw
27.7%

Floresta
17.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

27.6%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.1%

29.1%

18.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Floresta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Floresta than the current prediction. (+1%)

Náutico Capibaribe - Floresta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. Muriel Becker (G) 2. Arnaldo 80. Bruno Mezenga 33. Carlinhos 23. Igor Fernandes 5. Igor Pereira 12. Kelvin 8. Marco Antonio 25. Mateus Silva 20. Patrick Allan 7. Vinicius (C)	1. Dalton (G) 17. Diego Matos 8. Guilherme Nunes 31. Icaro (C) 9. Jeam 2. Mateus Ludke 28. Pablo 30. Romarinho 7. Ruan 13. Thomas Kayck 3. Vitao
Substitutes
18. Auremir 35. de Sousa Oliveira T. 21. Felipe Redaelli 40. Joao Maistro 15. Kayon 30. Marco Antonio 17. Marcos Ytalo 9. Paulo Sergio 26. Raimar 41. Samuel 1. Wellerson R. (G) 22. Wenderson	12. Dheimison (G) 18. Guilherme Martineli 27. Gustavo Ramos 10. Gustavo Xuxa 15. Igor Dutra 4. Julio Vaz 20. Marco Antonio 6. Rafael Furlan 29. Rodrigo 19. Rubens

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Mateus Silva 🟨,
35', Ruan 🟨,
40', Dalton 🟨,
41', Romarinho 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Ruan ↓, Gustavo Ramos ↑,
63', Mateus Silva ↓, Raimar ↑,
63', Bruno Mezenga ↓, Paulo Sergio ↑,
64', Romarinho ↓, Rubens ↑,
64', Jeam ↓, Gustavo Xuxa ↑,
65', Carlinhos 🟨,
71', Vinicius ↓, Marco Antonio ↑,
71', Patrick Allan ↓, de Sousa Oliveira T. ↑,
71', Gustavo Xuxa 🟨,
77', Thomas Kayck 🟨,
80', Arnaldo ↓, Marcos Ytalo ↑,
87', Gustavo Ramos ↓, Julio Vaz ↑,
87', Guilherme Nunes ↓, Guilherme Martineli ↑,
88', 🟨,
90+1', Rubens 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 9).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Náutico is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Náutico won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie C
29.06.25	Tombense - Náutico Capibaribe	0:2 ✺
16.06.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Maringá	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
07.06.25	Bahia - Náutico Capibaribe	3:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie C
31.05.25	ABC - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0 ✺
24.05.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWLTL
- Floresta EC
Brazilian Serie C
30.06.25	Floresta - Brusque	2:1 ✺
16.06.25	CS Alagoano - Floresta	2:0 ✺
31.05.25	Floresta - Itabaiana	1:0 ✺
25.05.25	Ituano - Floresta	0:0 ✺
17.05.25	Floresta - Guarani	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
17.06.24	Náutico Capibaribe - Floresta	0:1
22.05.23	Náutico Capibaribe - Floresta	3:1

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