Match Info

ENGLAND: NATIONAL LEAGUE - ROUND 9

Date: 16 September 2023, Saturday


	Ebbsfleet United		Chesterfield

	1	X	2
	3.8	3.6	1.85
	3.6	3.75	1.9	Watch
	3.51	4.24	1.9
	3.1	3.5	1.95
	3.58	3.92	1.85
	3.4	3.8	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↑ (2.93)	3.8 ↑ (3.6)	1.89 ↓ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ebbsfleet United
26.5%

Draw
24.4%

Chesterfield
49.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

25.7%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.7%

25%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ebbsfleet United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ebbsfleet United's form might have worsened.

Chesterfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chesterfield's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ebbsfleet United than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chesterfield than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chesterfield, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.1%	0%	90.9%

Ebbsfleet United - Chesterfield Predictions

Users Predictions: Chesterfield will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cousins M. (G) 24. Amoo D. 8. Cisse O. 26. Hollis H. 3. Martin J. 2. O'Neil L. 14. Poleon D. 7. Sterling-James O. 10. Tanner C. 23. White H. 4. Wright J.	1. Tyrer H. (G) 11. Colclough R. 17. Dobra A. 16. Freckleton M. 9. Grigg W. 5. Grimes J. 10. Jacobs M. 35. Jones M. 7. Mandeville L. 4. Naylor T. 12. Williams T.
Substitutes
22. Chapman B. 18. Clifford B. 25. Coulthirst S. 17. Edser T. 11. McQueen D.	28. Banks O. 18. Berry-McNally J. 24. Curtis H. 21. Palmer A. 27. Quigley J.

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day's play. In the match war can see two teams from the top of the table (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ National League (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Recent matches Ebbsfleet is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Chesterfield is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Chesterfield will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Ebbsfleet won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-10.

Including matches at home between the teams Ebbsfleet won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ebbsfleet United
English National League
09.09.23	Wealdstone - Ebbsfleet United	2:1 ✺
02.09.23	Ebbsfleet United - York City	4:1 ✺
28.08.23	Barnet - Ebbsfleet United	3:2 ✺
26.08.23	Ebbsfleet United - Kidderminster Harriers	3:0 ✺
19.08.23	Gateshead - Ebbsfleet United	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWLWL
- Chesterfield
English National League
09.09.23	Chesterfield - Dagenham & Redbridge	3:1 ✺
02.09.23	Aldershot Town - Chesterfield	3:4 ✺
28.08.23	Chesterfield - Hartlepool United	3:2 ✺
26.08.23	Altrincham - Chesterfield	2:1 ✺
19.08.23	Chesterfield - Oldham Athletic	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

English National League
22.02.20	Chesterfield - Ebbsfleet United	4:0
02.11.19	Ebbsfleet United - Chesterfield	2:2
05.01.19	Chesterfield - Ebbsfleet United	3:3
04.08.18	Ebbsfleet United - Chesterfield	0:1

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