Match Info
Serie B - Relegation Group - Round 3Date: 11 September 2026, FridayLocation: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Ecuador | Zapping, Zapping Sports |
 Usa | SportsEngine Play |
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El Nacional |
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22 de Julio |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
1.46 |
4.34 |
6.53 |
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 |
1.56 |
4.17 |
5.31 |
 Watch |
 |
1.50 |
4.41 |
5.78 |
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 |
1.40 |
4.30 |
5.50 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.48 ↓
(1.77) |
4.31 ↑
(3.5) |
5.78 ↑
(4.15) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
- The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
El Nacional
62.5% | Draw
21.5% | 22 de Julio
16% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in El Nacional's performance.22 de Julio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and 22 de Julio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-18.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with El Nacional that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for 22 de Julio than the current prediction. (+9.8%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that 22 de Julio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.El Nacional - 22 de Julio Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 2', 1 - 0, ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 0)
- 54', 2 - 0, ⚽,
- 61', 3 - 0, ⚽,
Preview
Neither of the teams is performing well right now.El Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days. In this match, El Nacional is seen as the favorite.In the last 2 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).Including home match between the teams, El Nacional won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.
Last Results with these Odds
22 de Julio - the odds 4.15 are the expected chance of winning is 22.07%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Ecuadorian Serie B | | | 31.07.26 | 22 de Julio - El Nacional | 1:3 | | 09.05.26 | El Nacional - 22 de Julio | 1:1 |
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