Match Info

Serie B - Round 20

Date: 6 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	El Nacional		9 de Octubre

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.70	1.52
	6.7	3.4	1.5
	6.21	3.72	1.58
	7.47	3.72	1.5	Watch
	5.58	3.65	1.63
	6.6	3.35	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.3 ↓ (8.5)	3.59 ↓ (3.95)	1.54 ↑ (1.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

El Nacional
14.6%

Draw
25.6%

9 de Octubre
59.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

10.6%

22.8%

66.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

10.2%

21.9%

69.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

9 de Octubre has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and 9 de Octubre might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for 9 de Octubre than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that 9 de Octubre could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

El Nacional - 9 de Octubre Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. El Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 25%). 9 de Octubre will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 12 in the zone Serie B (Relegation Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion Group: )).

El Nacional is Serie B (Relegation Group )

9 de Octubre is Qualified for Serie B (Promotion Group )

El Nacional has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, 9 de Octubre has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

El Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, 9 de Octubre is the clear favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 1:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, El Nacional won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Standings

Promotion Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Nueve de Octubre	28	11	12	5	31:20	11	45

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Serie B
31.07.26	22 de Julio - El Nacional	1:3 ✺
24.07.26	El Nacional - Gualaceo	0:0 ✺
15.07.26	Vinotinto - El Nacional	2:1 ✺
08.07.26	El Nacional - Cumbayá	0:1 ✺
02.07.26	Atlético Rojiblanco - El Nacional	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WTLLL
- 9 de Octubre FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
29.07.26	Deportivo Santo Domingo - 9 de Octubre	0:0 ✺
25.07.26	9 de Octubre - 22 de Julio	1:0 ✺
16.07.26	Cumbayá - 9 de Octubre	0:0 ✺
11.07.26	9 de Octubre - Gualaceo	0:0 ✺
04.07.26	LDU Portoviejo - 9 de Octubre	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TWTTT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
17.05.26	9 de Octubre - El Nacional	3:1
Ecuadorian Copa
18.09.25	9 de Octubre - El Nacional	2:1 penalties
02.11.22	9 de Octubre - El Nacional	0:0
08.09.22	El Nacional - 9 de Octubre	2:0

Upcoming Matches