Match Info

Serie B - Round 21

Date: 13 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	El Nacional		San Antonio

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.80	3.10	2.25
	3.00	3.20	2.10
	3.05	3.35	2.40
	3	3.23	2.35	Watch
	2.90	3.37	2.34	Watch
	2.85	3.05	2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↓ (3.05)	3.22 ↓ (3.85)	2.28 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

El Nacional
31.3%

Draw
28.5%

San Antonio
40.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.4%

23.3%

47.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.5%

22.6%

48.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

San Antonio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and San Antonio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Antonio than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that San Antonio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

El Nacional - San Antonio Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. El Nacional will win (votes: 2 - 40%). San Antonio will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', (Penalty Awarded),
8', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 12 in the zone Serie B (Relegation Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion Group: )).

El Nacional is Serie B (Relegation Group )

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

El Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

San Antonio could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, El Nacional won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

Promotion Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	San Antonio	28	7	12	9	26:32	-6	33

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Serie B
06.08.26	El Nacional - 9 de Octubre	1:0 ✺
31.07.26	22 de Julio - El Nacional	1:3 ✺
24.07.26	El Nacional - Gualaceo	0:0 ✺
15.07.26	Vinotinto - El Nacional	2:1 ✺
08.07.26	El Nacional - Cumbayá	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 29.6 WWTLL
- San Antonio Ibarra FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
06.08.26	San Antonio - Gualaceo	2:1 ✺
29.07.26	Vinotinto - San Antonio	0:1 ✺
22.07.26	San Antonio - Cumbayá	0:0 ✺
16.07.26	Atlético Rojiblanco - San Antonio	4:1 ✺
11.07.26	San Antonio - Deportivo Santo Domingo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
24.05.26	San Antonio - El Nacional	1:0

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