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Current Win Probability
El Nacional 32.9%
Draw 28.4%
Libertad Loja 38.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
52.7%
26.5%
20.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
55.6%
28%
19.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that El Nacional's form might have worsened.
Libertad Loja has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.9%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Libertad Loja's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (+22.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for El Nacional, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (-19%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Libertad Loja, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
83.3%
16.7%
0%
El Nacional - Libertad Loja Predictions
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. El Nacional (votes: 2 - 100%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
AH +0.25 - Libertad (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
El Nacional will win
(5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%). Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. El Nacional (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Libertad (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
12. Cabezas D. (C) 30. Carabali F. 32. Bedoya A. 5. Flor F. 7. Chala J. 13. Caicedo E. 15. Cela A. 18. Rivera B. 14. Pazmino D. 10. Borja J. 99. Reasco D.
45. Nazareno L. (G) 25. Bolanos D. 4. Biojo R. 3. Becerra K. 36. Garcia A. 70. Quinonez Y. 30. Bravo J. 7. Zambrano I. (C) 37. Arboleda C. 8. Ayovi W. 19. Caicedo E.
Substitutes
59. Borja F. 11. Branda V. 4. Cabezas Briones R. A. 1. Chala L. (G) 9. De Jesus B. 20. Guisamano J. 60. Maya J. 55. Mejia Moreira J. D. 26. Mena A. 25. Montano M. 24. Mora F. 17. Velez C.
9. Avila D. 55. Bueno Quinonez S. 22. Cagua F. 14. Caicedo N. 23. Gruezo C. 50. Humanante J. 12. Mina F. (G) 24. Monaga J. 80. Pachito B. 21. Quinonez A. 6. Quinonez O.
Coaches
Perez J. C.
Leon J.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
27', 1 - 0, Reasco D. ⚽, Pazmino D. (A),
37', 1 - 1, Zambrano I. ⚽, Arboleda C. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', 1 - 2, Arboleda C. ⚽, Caicedo E. (A),
56', Carabali F. ↓, Cabezas Briones R. A. ↑,
56', Cela A. ↓, Velez C. ↑,
67', Rivera B. ↓, Mejia Moreira J. D. ↑,
74', Ayovi W. ↓, Caicedo N. ↑,
78', 2 - 2, Reasco D. ⚽, Chala J. (A),
84', Chala J. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
84', Borja J. ↓, Maya J. ↑,
87', Arboleda C. ↓, Avila D. ↑,
87', Caicedo E. ↓, Monaga J. ↑,
Preview
Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Championship Group: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 4.
El Nacional has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Libertad is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Libertad may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
El Nacional will hold a modest advantage in this match.
In the last 9 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:11. (average 2.1:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, El Nacional won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:8. (average 3:2).
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Cabezas D. (C) 
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