Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 18

Date: 29 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Bellavista (Ambato)

Referee: Guerrero G. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Técnico Universitario		El Nacional

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.6	2.88	Watch
	2.1	3.2	3
				Watch
	2.27	3.35	3.22
				Watch
	2.2	3.2	3.1
	2.33	3.6	2.77	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.23 ↑ (2.01)	3.39 ↓ (3.48)	2.99 ↓ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Técnico Universitario
41.6%

Draw
27.4%

El Nacional
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.6%

26.9%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

27.5%

25.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Técnico Universitario has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Técnico Universitario than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Técnico Universitario, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for El Nacional, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Técnico Universitario - El Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Técnico Univ will win (votes: 4 - 40%). El Nacional will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Técnico Univ: 9.6% – 70.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Técnico Univ (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Mero J. (G) 36. Perez M. 6. Gomez Pereyra M. 26. Medranda M. 23. Herrera O. 27. Minda T. 5. Cristobal R. 70. Torres E. 7. Celis R. 10. Andrade J. (C) 9. Blanco J.	12. Cabezas D. (C) 30. Carabali F. 4. Cabezas Briones R. A. 5. Flor F. 25. Montano M. 17. Velez C. 13. Caicedo E. 15. Cela A. 14. Pazmino D. 7. Chala J. 99. Reasco D.
Substitutes
11. Carabali E. 52. Castillo A. 19. Corozo B. 21. Jimenez J. 25. Norona M. 17. Patta E. 77. Vera D. 1. Yustiz Y. (G)	10. Borja J. 11. Branda V. 1. Chala L. (G) 16. Cifuentes J. 66. Estupinan W. 20. Guisamano J. 77. Hernandez B. 55. Mejia Moreira J. D. 18. Rivera B.
Coaches
Hernandez J.	Asad O. A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Cela A. 🟨,
31', Cristobal R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Cristobal R. ↓, Jimenez J. ↑,
59', Cela A. ↓, Rivera B. ↑,
63', Cabezas Briones R. A. 🟥,
68', Herrera O. ↓, Vera D. ↑,
73', Celis R. ↓, Carabali E. ↑,
77', Pazmino D. ↓, Guisamano J. ↑,
77', Minda T. ↓, Patta E. ↑,
77', Andrade J. ↓, Corozo B. ↑,
88', Montano M. 🟨,
89', Chala J. ↓, Branda V. ↑,
90', Reasco D. ↓, Cifuentes J. ↑,
90', Velez C. 🟨,
90+3', Perez M. 🟨,
90+8', Rivera B. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Técnico Univ won 0.

Técnico Univ is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, El Nacional has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Técnico Univ is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Técnico Univ won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:29. (average 1.4:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Técnico Univ won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:17. (average 1.3:2.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Técnico Universitario
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
20.06.25	Libertad Loja - Técnico Universitario	4:1 ✺
15.06.25	Técnico Universitario - SD Aucas	1:1 ✺
31.05.25	LDU Quito - Técnico Universitario	3:2 ✺
25.05.25	Técnico Universitario - Delfín	1:2 ✺
16.05.25	Deportivo Cuenca - Técnico Universitario	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LTLLL
- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.06.25	El Nacional - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:3 ✺
15.06.25	Deportivo Cuenca - El Nacional	4:1 ✺
01.06.25	Mushuc Runa - El Nacional	2:3 ✺
25.05.25	El Nacional - Emelec	2:0 ✺
17.05.25	Deportivo Macará - El Nacional	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
02.03.25	El Nacional - Técnico Universitario	0:0
01.12.24	El Nacional - Técnico Universitario	2:1
31.05.24	Técnico Universitario - El Nacional	1:2
12.08.23	Técnico Universitario - El Nacional	3:3
04.03.23	El Nacional - Técnico Universitario	3:2
10.11.20	Técnico Universitario - El Nacional	1:0
12.09.20	El Nacional - Técnico Universitario	0:1

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