Match Info

Liga Pro - Placement Group - Round 4

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda (Quito)

Referee: Diaz A. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, Ecuavisa, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	SD Aucas		El Nacional

	1	X	2
	1.53	4	5.25	Watch
	1.55	3.95	5.15	Watch
	1.56	4.01	5.19	Watch
	1.58	4.03	5.34	Watch
	1.58	3.85	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 (1.56)	3.97 ↓ (4.01)	5.19 (5.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

SD Aucas
59%

Draw
23.2%

El Nacional
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.2%

23%

17.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61%

22.3%

17.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

SD Aucas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

The chances for El Nacional have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for SD Aucas than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
88.9%	0%	11.1%

SD Aucas - El Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: SD Aucas will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): SD Aucas will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Piedra H. (C) 27. Ciccioli U. 16. Rolon C. 3. Ontaneda J. 2. Segura E. 15. Mina J. 21. Spina A. L. 25. Jaramilo R. 22. Cano L. 7. Miranda B. 9. Montenegro B.	30. Congo J. (G) 5. Flor F. 18. Rivera B. 3. Carabali F. 24. Mora F. 17. Velez C. 26. Mena A. 15. Cela A. 99. Reasco D. 7. Chala J. (C) 55. Mejia Moreira J. D.
Substitutes
18. Almagro A. 40. Cabezas J. (G) 8. Mina A. 23. Patino D. 19. Pepinos E. 28. Quinonez R. 79. Sanabria M. 5. Serpa T. 10. Uchuari J.	56. Benalcazar L. 59. Borja F. 10. Borja J. 11. Branda V. 4. Cabezas Briones R. A. 1. Chala L. (G) 16. Cifuentes J. 9. De Jesus B. 20. Guisamano J. 77. Hernandez B. 2. Mazamba S. 28. Puente J.
Coaches
Buch J. P.	Perez J. C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, Miranda B. ⚽,
38', 1 - 1, Reasco D. ⚽, Mena A. (A),
40', Spina A. L. 🟨,
43', 2 - 1, Montenegro B. ⚽, Cano L. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Mora F. ↓, Hernandez B. ↑,
46', Spina A. L. ↓, Mina A. ↑,
47', 3 - 1, Montenegro B. ⚽, Miranda B. (A),
51', 3 - 2, Reasco D. ⚽,
52', Rivera B. 🟨,
65', Cela A. ↓, Borja J. ↑,
66', Mina J. ↓, Almagro A. ↑,
76', Montenegro B. ↓, Uchuari J. ↑,
76', Cano L. ↓, Sanabria M. ↑,
82', 3 - 3, Reasco D. ⚽, Mena A. (A),
85', Rolon C. 🟨,
86', Mejia Moreira J. D. ↓, Cabezas Briones R. A. ↑,
90+1', Jaramilo R. ↓, Quinonez R. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 2.

Aucas has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

El Nacional is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Aucas is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aucas won 9 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 28:19. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Aucas won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:8. (average 1.3:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Aucas
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
25.10.25	Deportivo Cuenca - SD Aucas	1:2 ✺
19.10.25	SD Aucas - Emelec	0:0 ✺
05.10.25	Deportivo Macará - SD Aucas	3:2 ✺
27.09.25	Barcelona Guayaquil - SD Aucas	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	SD Aucas - Orense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WTLTT
- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
26.10.25	El Nacional - Deportivo Macará	2:0 ✺
20.10.25	El Nacional - Deportivo Cuenca	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Delfín - El Nacional	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	El Nacional - Mushuc Runa	0:5 ✺
21.09.25	Emelec - El Nacional	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
14.07.25	SD Aucas - El Nacional	1:0
16.03.25	El Nacional - SD Aucas	0:1
24.08.24	El Nacional - SD Aucas	0:0
20.03.24	SD Aucas - El Nacional	3:4
05.08.23	El Nacional - SD Aucas	2:2
26.02.23	SD Aucas - El Nacional	0:2
09.12.20	El Nacional - SD Aucas	2:2

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