Match Info

Liga Pro - Round 25

Date: 15 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt (Guayaquil)

Referee: Canchingre J. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports, Zapping Sports+
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Guayaquil City		Libertad Loja

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.4	4.2	Watch
	1.93	3.10	3.50
	1.85	3.2	4	Watch
	1.92	3.42	4.39
	1.93	3.32	4.09	Watch
	1.83	3.4	4.45
	1.82	3.41	4.43	Watch
	1.85	3.25	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.87 ↓ (2.13)	3.31 ↑ (3.15)	4.13 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Guayaquil City
49.6%

Draw
28%

Libertad Loja
22.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

29.3%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

29.8%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guayaquil City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Guayaquil City's performance.

Libertad Loja has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Libertad Loja might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guayaquil City than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Guayaquil City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Libertad Loja than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Guayaquil City - Libertad Loja Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Guayaquil City will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Libertad will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Napa G. (G) 33. Caicedo R. 3. Rodriguez Y. 51. Cabezas E. 6. Arias R. 14. Arroyo D. 15. Sambonino K. 80. Gonzalez P. 23. Bolanos M. (C) 19. Naula A. 11. Mero E.	12. Cabezas D. (C) 17. Patta E. 6. Caicedo B. 2. Morinigo R. 19. Quinonez O. 20. Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. 70. Branda V. 63. Valencia C. 33. Chere A. 80. Pineda Arana X. E. 49. Coronel D.
Substitutes
7. Caicedo S. 21. Dorregaray D. 4. Ladines Calvache E. P. 20. Laurino S. 70. Mancilla P. 16. Ordonez J. 9. Palma M. 12. Perea R. (G) 30. Pinos J. (G) 29. Quinonez J. 50. Rivadeneira F.	11. Batalla H. 30. Bravo J. 27. Bueno S. 9. Caicedo E. 8. Castro S. 5. Gruezo C. 25. Lucas M. 18. Quinonez Y.
Coaches
Gavilanez P.	Buch J. P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
18', 0 - 1, Coronel D. ⚽, Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. (A),
24', 0 - 2, Branda V. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
60', Sambonino K. ↓, Mancilla P. ↑,
61', Coronel D. 🟨,
61', Pineda Arana X. E. 🟨,
62', 1 - 2, Mero E. ⚽, Bolanos M. (A),
63', Coronel D. ↓, Batalla H. ↑,
68', Chere A. ↓, Caicedo E. ↑,
68', Cabezas E. ↓, Quinonez J. ↑,
69', Valencia C. ↓, Bravo J. ↑,
78', 2 - 2, Mero E. ⚽, Bolanos M. (A),
79', Rodriguez Perlaza J. G. ↓, Quinonez Y. ↑,
79', Branda V. ↓, Castro S. ↑,
83', Arroyo D. 🟨,
87', Arroyo D. ↓, Laurino S. ↑,
88', Gonzalez P. ↓, Dorregaray D. ↑,
88', Arias R. ↓, Ordonez J. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 in the zone Liga Pro (Relegation Group: ) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Pro (Placement Group: )).

Recent performances by Guayaquil City have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Libertad is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Guayaquil City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Guayaquil City might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Guayaquil City won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Guayaquil City won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Guayaquil City - the odds 2.13 are the expected chance of winning is 43.25%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guayaquil City FC
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
09.08.26	Guayaquil City - Emelec	0:0 ✺
02.08.26	Deportivo Macará - Guayaquil City	2:1 ✺
27.07.26	Guayaquil City - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	0:0 ✺
23.07.26	Leones del Norte - Guayaquil City	1:1 ✺
19.07.26	Guayaquil City - Manta	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 TLTTW
- Libertad Loja
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
10.08.26	Libertad Loja - Universidad Católica del Ecuador	2:1 ✺
31.07.26	Libertad Loja - Orense	3:0 ✺
27.07.26	Mushuc Runa - Libertad Loja	0:2 ✺
21.07.26	Libertad Loja - Delfín	1:0 ✺
18.07.26	Barcelona Guayaquil - Libertad Loja	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.5 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Liga Pro
21.04.26	Libertad Loja - Guayaquil City	0:1
09.10.23	Libertad Loja - Guayaquil City	1:0
06.05.23	Guayaquil City - Libertad Loja	1:1

Upcoming Matches