The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
El Nacional 26.8%
Draw 25.1%
Gualaceo 48%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
21%
26.4%
52.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
20.5%
25.7%
53.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
El Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in El Nacional's performance.
Gualaceo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-6.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with El Nacional that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gualaceo than the current prediction. (+5.8%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gualaceo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
El Nacional - Gualaceo Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
45+3', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', 1 - 1, ⚽,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Nacional won 2.
El Nacional is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Performances by Gualaceo have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
El Nacional may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Gualaceo carries the favorite tag into this contest.
In the last 9 head-to-head meetings, El Nacional has recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 13:15 (averaging 1.4:1.7 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for El Nacional against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with 9:5 goals (averaging 2.3:1.3 per game).
Last Results with these Odds
El Nacional - the odds 4.37 are the expected chance of winning is 21.04%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.
Ecuador
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