Match Info

Serie B - Round 17

Date: 15 July 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Atahualpa (Quito)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	Zapping Sports
Ecuador	Zapping, Zapping Sports
Peru	Zapping Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Vinotinto		El Nacional

	1	X	2
	1.31	4.60	7.50
	1.30	4.60	8.00
	1.31	4.87	9.70
	1.43	4.14	7.51	Watch
	1.29	4.80	9.60
	1.29	4.50	9.55	Watch
	1.33	4.60	7.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.32 ↑ (1.3)	4.59 ↓ (4.6)	8.52 ↑ (8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vinotinto
69.3%

Draw
20%

El Nacional
10.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.2%

19.6%

11.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73%

18.6%

10.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vinotinto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

El Nacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vinotinto than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Nacional than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Vinotinto - El Nacional Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Vinotinto will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', (Penalty Awarded),
23', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
59', 2 - 0, ⚽,
62', 2 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion Group: ) and 12 in the zone Serie B (Relegation Group: )).

El Nacional is Serie B (Relegation Group )

Recent performances by Vinotinto have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

El Nacional has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Vinotinto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Vinotinto has had a series of home games.

In this match, Vinotinto is the undeniable favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Vinotinto won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Vinotinto won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.

Standings

Promotion Group

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Vinotinto	29	13	9	7	37:22	15	48

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vinotinto Ecuador
Ecuadorian Serie B
01.07.26	Vinotinto - Gualaceo	1:2 ✺
09.06.26	9 de Octubre - Vinotinto	2:1 ✺
04.06.26	Vinotinto - Cumbayá	1:1 ✺
31.05.26	Vinotinto - Atlético Rojiblanco	3:0 ✺
Ecuadorian Copa
27.05.26	Vinotinto - Orense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLTWW
- CD El Nacional
Ecuadorian Serie B
08.07.26	El Nacional - Cumbayá	0:1 ✺
02.07.26	Atlético Rojiblanco - El Nacional	3:0 ✺
10.06.26	El Nacional - Deportivo Santo Domingo	0:0 ✺
07.06.26	Cuenca Juniors - El Nacional	4:1 ✺
31.05.26	El Nacional - LDU Portoviejo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
29.04.26	El Nacional - Vinotinto	1:2
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
29.08.25	Vinotinto - El Nacional	0:1
12.05.25	El Nacional - Vinotinto	2:1

Vinotinto - El Nacional: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide