Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 15

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Butarque (Leganes)

Referee: Mallo E. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion 2, Movistar Plus+


	Leganés		Almería

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.05	2.85	Watch
	2.52	3.1	2.78	Watch
	2.65	3.25	2.81
	2.49	3.17	2.92	Watch
	2.72	3.08	2.86	Watch
	2.5	3.3	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.5)	3.16 ↓ (3.29)	2.84 ↑ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leganés
36.9%

Draw
29.9%

Almería
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.8%

28.7%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

30.6%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leganés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leganés than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Almería than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	22.2%	22.2%

Leganés - Almería Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Leganés will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Almería will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Leganés: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Leganés (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Soriano J. (G) 7. Pena R. 3. Saenz J. (C) 6. Aguilar Lopez G. 2. Marvel 17. Garcia N. 10. Cruz J. 24. Diawara A. 8. Cisse S. 19. Garcia D. 11. Duk	1. Fernandez A. (G) 22. Chirino D. 4. Monte N. 15. Hernandez A. 18. Bonini F. 20. Centelles A. 11. Arribas S. 14. Baba I. 8. Gui Guedes 23. Embarba A. (C) 9. Thalys
Substitutes
21. Campos A. 9. de la Fuente M. 22. Figueredo S. 15. Franquesa E. 38. Gueye D. 14. Lopez R. 16. Melero G. 23. Millan A. 5. Miquel I. 18. Pauwels B. 20. Plano O. 13. San Roman M. (G)	5. Clua S. 29. Dzodic S. 32. Fidel Cedillo Segura P. 6. Horta A. 12. Leo Baptistao 16. Luna M. 13. Martinez F. (G) 3. Munoz A. 36. Perovic M. 2. Puigmal A. 24. Robertone L. 19. Soko P.
Coaches
Lopez P.	Rubi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', 0 - 1, Embarba A. ⚽, Centelles A. (A),
25', Baba I. 🟨,
34', Centelles A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Centelles A. ↓, Dzodic S. ↑,
46', Baba I. ↓, Munoz A. ↑,
50', 0 - 2, Chirino D. ⚽, Arribas S. (A),
54', Aguilar Lopez G. 🟨,
57', Aguilar Lopez G. ↓, Melero G. ↑,
58', Garcia D. ↓, de la Fuente M. ↑,
60', Pena R. ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
64', Thalys ↓, Soko P. ↑,
78', Arribas S. ↓, Puigmal A. ↑,
82', Embarba A. 🟨,
83', Embarba A. ↓, Leo Baptistao ↑,
84', Saenz J. ↓, Figueredo S. ↑,
84', Garcia N. ↓, Pauwels B. ↑,
88', Chirino D. 🟨,
90', 0 - 3, Puigmal A. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Leganés won 2.

Leganés has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Almería is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Leganés may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Leganés has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Leganés: Franquesa E. (Injury) Pulido R. (Knee Injury) de la Fuente M. (Injury)

There will not play in Almería: Chumi (Ankle Injury) Kone I. (Ankle Injury) Lopy D. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Almería: Leo Baptistao (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Leganés won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.7:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Leganés won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Leganés - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 37.8%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Almería - the odds 2.82 are the expected chance of winning is 33.5%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Leganés
Spanish LaLiga2
16.11.25	Ceuta - Leganés	1:2 ✺
08.11.25	Real Sociedad B - Leganés	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	Leganés - Burgos	1:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.25	Azuaga - Leganés	1:4 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
25.10.25	Eibar - Leganés	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLLWT
- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
16.11.25	Almería - Cádiz	3:0 ✺
01.11.25	Almería - Eibar	3:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
29.10.25	Lorca Deportiva - Almería	0:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
26.10.25	Almería - Castellón	1:0 ✺
19.10.25	Córdoba - Almería	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Copa del Rey
15.01.25	Almería - Leganés	2:3
Spanish LaLiga2
29.05.22	Leganés - Almería	2:2
29.10.21	Almería - Leganés	1:0
27.03.21	Almería - Leganés	1:1
17.02.21	Leganés - Almería	2:1
23.01.16	Leganés - Almería	2:1
23.08.15	Almería - Leganés	3:2

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