The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Elgin City 40.1%
Draw 26.7%
Kelty Hearts 33.2%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
34%
26.2%
39.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
33.2%
26.8%
40.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Elgin City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Elgin City's performance.
Kelty Hearts has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Kelty Hearts might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Elgin City than the current prediction. (-6.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Elgin City that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kelty Hearts than the current prediction. (+7.6%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Kelty Hearts could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Elgin City - Kelty Hearts Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Ritchie T. (G) 5. Girvan K. 2. Neill M. 6. Murray J. 23. Grant M. 7. Dingwall R. (C) 24. Mackay L. 22. MacIver J. 77. Scullion L. 9. Hester K. 11. Colloty O.
31. Smith J. (G) 24. Walker G. 11. Davidson A. 43. Brydon J. (C) 2. Hannah C. 8. Hislop J. 6. McManus C. 5. Ferguson A. 18. Moore L. 7. Higginbotham K. 28. Shanley R.
Substitutes
25. Brown C. 12. Cairns O. 18. Cummings A. 10. Gallagher M. 14. Machado M. 28. McLean S. 27. Morrison J. (G) 32. Rothnie S. 17. Willox K.
1. Adamson R. (G) 15. Cole R. 22. Cunningham R. 16. Falconer T. 3. Flatman C. 20. Flatman Z. 19. Lawson N. 9. Moffett F. 10. Murray I.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
19', Ferguson A. 🟨,
29', 1 - 0, Hester K. ⚽, Dingwall R. (A),
34', Murray J. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Hannah C. ↓, Falconer T. ↑,
51', 2 - 0, Mackay L. ⚽,
58', Higginbotham K. ↓, Moffett F. ↑,
58', Ferguson A. ↓, Cunningham R. ↑,
68', Scullion L. ↓, Cummings A. ↑,
68', Hester K. ↓, Cairns O. ↑,
69', Moore L. ↓, Cole R. ↑,
69', Shanley R. ↓, Lawson N. ↑,
71', 2 - 1, Cole R. ⚽,
78', Mackay L. ↓, Gallagher M. ↑,
78', Grant M. ↓, Willox K. ↑,
81', 3 - 1, Dingwall R. ⚽,
85', 4 - 1, MacIver J. ⚽, Cummings A. (A),
85', MacIver J. ↓, McLean S. ↑,
90+1', Girvan K. 🟨,
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Elgin won 2.
Elgin is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Kelty Hearts's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Elgin won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 1.3:1.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Elgin won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 8:6. (average 1.6:1.2).
Outrights of Scottish League Two for now
Elgin City: 11.71% Kelty Hearts: 10.33%
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
3
Elgin City
9
4
2
3
25:16
9
14
5
Kelty Hearts
9
4
0
5
13:18
-5
12
Last Results with these Odds
Elgin City - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 34.02%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.
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Ritchie T. (G) 
Colloty O. 
Walker G. 
Higginbotham K. 
Machado M. 
Moffett F. 
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