Match Info

Serie B - Round 5

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Stadio Carlo Castellani (Empoli)

Referee: Di Marco D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Israel	5 GOLD Israel
Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV, Fox Soccer Plus, Fox
World	Onefootball


	Empoli		Carrarese

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	3.3	Watch
	2.25	3.05	3.25	Watch
	2.35	3.15	3.55
	1.16	5.29	30.00	Watch
	2.29	3.16	3.46	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↓ (2.08)	3.55 ↑ (3.33)	8.71 ↑ (3.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Empoli
55%

Draw
31.9%

Carrarese
13%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

28.1%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

27.7%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Empoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Empoli's performance.

Carrarese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Carrarese might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Empoli than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Empoli that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carrarese than the current prediction. (+13.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Carrarese could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	35.7%	21.4%

Empoli - Carrarese Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Empoli will win (votes: 6 - 42.9%). Carrarese will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Empoli: 17% – 68.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Empoli (3.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Empoli (4.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -1 - Empoli (4.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Empoli (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Fulignati A. (G) 5. Obaretin N. 20. Lovato M. 79. Carboni F. 34. Guarino G. 18. Ghion A. 14. Yepes G. 7. Elia S. 25. Ignacchiti L. (C) 11. Shpendi S. 70. Saporiti E.	1. Bleve M. (G) 37. Calabrese N. 6. Oliana F. 3. Imperiale M. (C) 72. Zanon S. 17. Zuelli E. 18. Schiavi N. 11. Cicconi M. 44. Sekulov N. 10. Bozhanaj K. 32. Finotto M.
Substitutes
8. Belardinelli L. 9. Bianchi F. 15. Ceesay J. 2. Curto M. 24. Ebuehi T. 32. Haas N. 10. Ilie R. 28. Indragoli G. 27. Moruzzi B. 1. Perisan S. (G) 77. Popov B. 29. Tosto L.	9. Abiuso F. 80. Accornero F. 30. Arena A. 7. Belloni N. 13. Bouah D. 99. Fiorillo V. (G) 12. Garofani G. (G) 8. Melegoni F. 77. Parlanti G. 21. Rubino T. 26. Ruggeri F. 5. Salamon B. 92. Torregrossa E.
Coaches
Pagliuca G.	Calabro A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', Zuelli E. 🟨,
15', 0 - 1, Zanon S. ⚽, Zuelli E. (A),
19', Pagliuca G. 🟨,
33', Ghion A. 🟨,
40', Carboni F. 🟨,
43', 1 - 1, Shpendi S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', Bozhanaj K. 🟨,
56', Sekulov N. 🟨,
59', Carboni F. ↓, Ceesay J. ↑,
62', Bozhanaj K. ↓, Abiuso F. ↑,
63', Sekulov N. ↓, Rubino T. ↑,
70', Calabrese N. ↓, Ruggeri F. ↑,
71', Saporiti E. ↓, Ilie R. ↑,
71', Yepes G. ↓, Moruzzi B. ↑,
71', Shpendi S. ↓, Popov B. ↑,
78', 2 - 1, Ceesay J. ⚽, Ignacchiti L. (A),
82', Guarino G. ↓, Curto M. ↑,
83', Cicconi M. ↓, Belloni N. ↑,
83', Oliana F. ↓, Bouah D. ↑,
88', 2 - 2, Finotto M. ⚽, Abiuso F. (A),

Preview

Empoli is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Carrarese has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Carrarese may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Empoli is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Empoli: Bianchi F. (Inactive) Degli Innocenti D. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Haas N. (Knee Injury) Nasti M. (Inactive) Pellegri P. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Carrarese: Belloni N. (Inactive) Mazzini S. (Shoulder Injury)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Empoli
Coppa Italia
25.09.25	Genoa - Empoli	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie B
21.09.25	Pescara - Empoli	4:0 ✺
14.09.25	Empoli - Spezia	1:1 ✺
29.08.25	Reggiana - Empoli	3:1 ✺
23.08.25	Empoli - Padova	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLTLW
- Carrarese Calcio
Italian Serie B
21.09.25	Carrarese - Avellino	3:4 ✺
13.09.25	Catanzaro - Carrarese	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Carrarese - Padova	0:0 ✺
24.08.25	Spezia - Carrarese	0:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
18.08.25	Udinese - Carrarese	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LTTWL

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