What is the expert prediction for Genoa vs Empoli?

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Genoa vs Empoli Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, September 25, 2025)

Match Info

Coppa Italia - 1/16-finals

Date: 25 September 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadio Luigi Ferraris (Genoa)

Referee: Dionisi F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2, DSPORTS+ Plus
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Canada	Amazon Prime Video
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2
France	DAZN France
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hungary	Arena 4
Italy	20 Mediaset, Infinity+, Italia 1, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kosovo	ART Sport 3
Malta	TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Caliente TV, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 5
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean
Norway	VG+
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-america	DGO Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Sweden	Sport Bladet Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2, Inter


	Genoa		Empoli

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.33	10	Watch
	1.37	4.45	10.5	Watch
	1.37	4.66	10.4
	1.43	4.16	7.98	Watch
	1.42	4.36	10.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.72)	4.39 ↑ (3.6)	9.86 ↑ (5.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Genoa
68.7%

Draw
21.6%

Empoli
9.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.7%

26.6%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

26%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Genoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Genoa's performance.

Empoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Empoli might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (-14.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Genoa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Empoli than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Empoli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

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Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Empoli (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Genoa (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Genoa will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Genoa will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Genoa (votes: 3 - 75%). Empoli (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leali N. (G) 20. Sabelli S. 27. Marcandalli A. 22. Vasquez J. (C) 3. Martin A. 32. Frendrup M. 8. Stanciu N. 23. Carboni V. 10. Junior Messias 11. Gronbaek A. 29. Colombo L.	1. Perisan S. (G) 5. Obaretin N. 34. Guarino G. 79. Carboni F. 24. Ebuehi T. 8. Belardinelli L. (C) 14. Yepes G. 27. Moruzzi B. 70. Saporiti E. 10. Ilie R. 77. Popov B.
Substitutes
30. Cuenca Martinez H. F. 21. Ekhator J. 18. Ekuban C. 77. Ellertsson M. E. 40. Fini S. 17. Malinovskyi R. 73. Masini P. 15. Norton-Cuffy B. 34. Otoa S. 31. Siegrist B. (G) 39. Sommariva D. (G) 2. Thorsby M. 76. Venturino L. 9. Vitinha	53. Busiello D. 89. Campaniello T. 12. Gasparini M. (G) 25. Ignacchiti L. 28. Indragoli G. 37. Lauricella G. 96. Orlandi A. 42. Pasalic K. 31. Perin E. 11. Shpendi S. 29. Tosto L. 22. Versari F. (G) 48. Zanaga E.
Coaches
Vieira P.	Pagliuca G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Saporiti E. ⚽,
15', 1 - 1, Frendrup M. ⚽, Colombo L. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Junior Messias ↓, Venturino L. ↑,
56', 2 - 1, Marcandalli A. ⚽, Venturino L. (A),
59', Popov B. ↓, Shpendi S. ↑,
59', Carboni F. ↓, Zanaga E. ↑,
60', Colombo L. ↓, Ekhator J. ↑,
66', Frendrup M. ↓, Masini P. ↑,
66', Gronbaek A. ↓, Thorsby M. ↑,
67', Ebuehi T. ↓, Indragoli G. ↑,
67', Yepes G. ↓, Ignacchiti L. ↑,
80', Saporiti E. ↓, Campaniello T. ↑,
83', 3 - 1, Ekhator J. ⚽, Thorsby M. (A),
84', Stanciu N. ↓, Fini S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Genoa won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Genoa is the obvious favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Genoa won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Genoa won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 0.9:0.5).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Genoa CFC
Italian Serie A
20.09.25	Bologna - Genoa	2:1 ✺
15.09.25	Como - Genoa	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Genoa - Juventus	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Genoa - Lecce	0:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
15.08.25	Genoa - Vicenza Virtus	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LTLTW
- FC Empoli
Italian Serie B
21.09.25	Pescara - Empoli	4:0 ✺
14.09.25	Empoli - Spezia	1:1 ✺
29.08.25	Reggiana - Empoli	3:1 ✺
23.08.25	Empoli - Padova	3:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
15.08.25	Empoli - Reggiana	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
02.03.25	Genoa - Empoli	1:1
28.12.24	Empoli - Genoa	1:2
03.02.24	Empoli - Genoa	0:0
02.12.23	Genoa - Empoli	1:1
06.03.22	Genoa - Empoli	0:0
05.11.21	Empoli - Genoa	2:2
28.01.19	Empoli - Genoa	1:3

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Genoa - Empoli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide