Match Info

Coppa Italia - 1/16-finals

Date: 25 September 2025, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stadio Luigi Ferraris (Genoa) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Dionisi F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Albania	18:30	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	13:30	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2, DSPORTS+ Plus
Australia	02:30	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Austria	18:30	DAZN
Bosnia And Herzegovina	18:30	Arena Premium 2, Arena Sport 2
Canada	12:30	Amazon Prime Video
Chile	13:30	DirecTV Sports
Croatia	18:30	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	19:30	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Ecuador	11:30	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2
France	18:30	DAZN France
Germany	18:30	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hungary	18:30	Arena 4
Italy	18:30	20 Mediaset, Infinity+, Italia 1, Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	01:30	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	22:30	Sport+
Kosovo	18:30	ART Sport 3
Malta	18:30	TSN Malta 3
Mexico	10:30	Caliente TV, Fox Sports
Netherlands	18:30	Ziggo Sport 5
North Central America	—	DirecTV Sports Caribbean
Norway	18:30	VG+
Peru	11:30	DirecTV Sports
Portugal	17:30	Sport TV1
Russia	19:30	MATCH! Futbol 1, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	18:30	Arena Premium 5
Slovenia	18:30	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South America	—	DGO Latin America
South Korea	01:30	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Sweden	18:30	Sport Bladet Play
Switzerland	18:30	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	19:30	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	17:30	Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	13:30	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2
Usa	12:30	Paramount+
Venezuela	12:30	DirecTV Sports, DSports 2, Inter


	Genoa		Empoli

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.33	10	Watch
	1.37	4.45	10.5	Watch
	1.37	4.66	10.4
	1.43	4.16	7.98	Watch
	1.42	4.36	10.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.72)	4.39 ↑ (3.6)	9.86 ↑ (5.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Genoa
68.7%

Draw
21.6%

Empoli
9.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.7%

26.6%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

26%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Genoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Genoa's performance.

Empoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Empoli might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Genoa than the current prediction. (-14.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Genoa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Empoli than the current prediction. (+8.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Empoli could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Genoa - Empoli Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Genoa (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1 - Empoli (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Genoa (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Genoa will win (13 of 13 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Genoa (votes: 3 - 75%). Empoli (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leali N. (G) 20. Sabelli S. 27. Marcandalli A. 22. Vasquez J. (C) 3. Martin A. 32. Frendrup M. 8. Stanciu N. 23. Carboni V. 10. Junior Messias 11. Gronbaek A. 29. Colombo L.	1. Perisan S. (G) 5. Obaretin N. 34. Guarino G. 79. Carboni F. 24. Ebuehi T. 8. Belardinelli L. (C) 14. Yepes G. 27. Moruzzi B. 70. Saporiti E. 10. Ilie R. 77. Popov B.
Substitutes
30. Cuenca Martinez H. F. 21. Ekhator J. 18. Ekuban C. 77. Ellertsson M. E. 40. Fini S. 17. Malinovskyi R. 73. Masini P. 15. Norton-Cuffy B. 34. Otoa S. 31. Siegrist B. (G) 39. Sommariva D. (G) 2. Thorsby M. 76. Venturino L. 9. Vitinha	53. Busiello D. 89. Campaniello T. 12. Gasparini M. (G) 25. Ignacchiti L. 28. Indragoli G. 37. Lauricella G. 96. Orlandi A. 42. Pasalic K. 31. Perin E. 11. Shpendi S. 29. Tosto L. 22. Versari F. (G) 48. Zanaga E.
Coaches
Vieira P.	Pagliuca G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Saporiti E. ⚽,
15', 1 - 1, Frendrup M. ⚽, Colombo L. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Junior Messias ↓, Venturino L. ↑,
56', 2 - 1, Marcandalli A. ⚽, Venturino L. (A),
59', Popov B. ↓, Shpendi S. ↑,
59', Carboni F. ↓, Zanaga E. ↑,
60', Colombo L. ↓, Ekhator J. ↑,
66', Frendrup M. ↓, Masini P. ↑,
66', Gronbaek A. ↓, Thorsby M. ↑,
67', Ebuehi T. ↓, Indragoli G. ↑,
67', Yepes G. ↓, Ignacchiti L. ↑,
80', Saporiti E. ↓, Campaniello T. ↑,
83', 3 - 1, Ekhator J. ⚽, Thorsby M. (A),
84', Stanciu N. ↓, Fini S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Genoa won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Genoa is the obvious favorite.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Genoa won 6 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.1:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Genoa won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 0.9:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Genoa CFC
Italian Serie A
20.09.25	Bologna - Genoa	2:1 ✺
15.09.25	Como - Genoa	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Genoa - Juventus	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Genoa - Lecce	0:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
15.08.25	Genoa - Vicenza Virtus	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LTLTW
- FC Empoli
Italian Serie B
21.09.25	Pescara - Empoli	4:0 ✺
14.09.25	Empoli - Spezia	1:1 ✺
29.08.25	Reggiana - Empoli	3:1 ✺
23.08.25	Empoli - Padova	3:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
15.08.25	Empoli - Reggiana	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
02.03.25	Genoa - Empoli	1:1
28.12.24	Empoli - Genoa	1:2
03.02.24	Empoli - Genoa	0:0
02.12.23	Genoa - Empoli	1:1
06.03.22	Genoa - Empoli	0:0
05.11.21	Empoli - Genoa	2:2
28.01.19	Empoli - Genoa	1:3

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